Iraqi authorities issued an arrest warrant for Sunni Muslim Vice-President Tareq al-Hashemi on Monday for suspected ties to assassinations and bombings, a decision likely to fuel sectarian tensions after the U.S. troop withdrawal.
So far, the reporting seems to assume that Maliki is doing this for partisan, sectarian purposes. But is it really far-fetched that a Sunni Arab is using his position to continue the fight against the Shia majority?
Iraq needs to make sure the accusations and process is done openly. If Hashemi is guilty, the Sunni Arabs need to let Hashemi go and face punishment. Conspiracy to murder should not be allowed just because it is inconvenient to arrest the guilty party.
It would help if the government went after Sadr and the other Iranian hand puppets acting in Iraq.
UPDATE: Hashemi denies everything:
Iraq's Sunni vice president denied Shiite accusations that he organized death squads, describing the charges Tuesday as a trumped-up case brought only after the departure of U.S. troops about assassinations allegedly committed five years ago.
The arrest warrant issued against the highest-ranking Sunni politician threatens to tear apart Iraq's coalition government and perhaps kick-start another Sunni insurgency. It raised suspicions that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, ordered the arrest of Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi as part of a campaign to consolidate his hold on power out of a fear that Sunnis in and out of Iraq are plotting against him.
Of course, he would deny the charges regardless, right?
Hashemi is being sheltered by the Kurds right now.
I have no idea if his denials are true or if the charges are true. I do know (or think I know, since I've warned of this for years) that the Shias fear that without our military presence, the political safety that allowed them to practice politics rather than warfare, the Shias fear the long-dominant Sunnis could engineer a coup and return to power.
The Sunnis, whether Hashemi is guilty or innocent, fear that this is just the first step to eradicating Sunni Arab power in Iraq. Sunni threats to restart the insurgency are fairly hollow. The Iraqis know where the Sunnis live. And the Iraqi security forces are much better now. And they wouldn't play by the rules that we insisted we follow in the counter-insurgency (Abu Ghraib, however shameful, was fraternity hazing level stuff and not torture as is often claimed). If the Sunni Arabs restart their insurgency, they will be killed or expelled to become another state-less group living in refugee camps in Syria and Jordan.
The Kurds have an interest in not being the only minority in Iraq. So despite the fact that the Sunni Arabs persecuted and gassed Kurds under Saddam, the Kurds would rather have the Sunnis around (but without sole power--just in case). At worst, the Shias would have someone to hate who are not Kurds. At best, the Kurds have more maneuvering room within the political system with another player.
The simplest explanation is that fear is driving the various actors to assume the worst and act on that fear just in case it is true.
I have some small hope that this is some theater by either the Sunni Arabs or the Shias to demonstrate why Iraq needs American troops for a while longer. Is it possible that we left to prove we would leave when asked but are angling with Iraqis to return? Of course, engineering a fake crisis could easily become a real crisis given that the fear really does exist.
My guess is that the simple explanation holds. But I'll be plenty relieved if this is true--or even if the real explanation leans closer to theater than crisis.
Once again, will our government please come to an agreement to return 25,000 troops (as long as I'm asking, ask for it all), including 3
UPDATE: Hashemi denies everything and Vice President Biden urged the Iraqis to work out their disagreements.
The problem is, some Sunni Arabs really are committing terrorist acts, as the wave of bombings in Baghdad that killed 60 shows:
There was no immediate claim of responsibility. But the bombings bore all the hallmarks of al-Qaida's Sunni insurgents. Most appeared to hit Shiite neighborhoods, although some Sunni areas were also targeted. In all, 11 neighborhoods were hit by either car bombs, roadside blasts or sticky bombs attached to cars. There was at least one suicide bombing and the blasts went off over several hours.
If Hashemi (or people under him) are helping this terrorism, then calling for Maliki to work with Hashemi is insane.
If this really is a politically motivated move by Maliki, it is stupid. But it is stupidity facilitated by fear--fear that we aren't there to prevent a Sunni Arab coup that brings back minority Sunni Arab rule and oppression.
In addition to immediately opening talks on returning US forces to Iraq, perhaps we should agree to take custody of Hashemi and oversee the investigation and trial of Hashemi in a transparent fashion so that if he is guilty, nobody thinks Maliki is just oppressing Sunni Arabs. And if Hashemi is innocent, the Sunni Arabs get a little confidence that they don't have to resort to violence out of fear of what happens if they don't take control via a coup.
Mind you, I don't think the Sunni Arabs could pull off a coup. I think a return to open violence just leads to the destruction of the Sunni Arab community in Iraq. But fear does funny things to your brain.
