U.S. petroleum imports, on a net basis, reached their peak—60%—of domestic consumption in 2005. Since then, they have been going in the other direction. They are now down to 46%.
What's happening? Part of the answer is demand. U.S. oil consumption reached what might be called "peak demand" in 2005 and has since declined. The country has become more efficient in its use of petroleum, and that will continue as vehicle fuel economy goes up. The economic slump has also muffled demand.
But developments on the supply side are particularly striking. U.S. crude oil output has risen by 18% since 2008. Some of that has come from an increase in deep-water output, although after last year's Deepwater Horizon oil spill the pace of future growth is more uncertain. The big surprise is onshore, where the United States is experiencing an oil boom.
I'd never claim that we can get all the way to energy independence any time soon--or even, ever. Or that drilling is the only way. Efficiency gains are surely important. But imagine what we could have achieved already if we opened up off-shore and other land-based fields? We've gotten where we are with producers working around the obstacles our government has placed in their way!
Being less dependent on foreign suppliers is good. Being less dependent on nutball suppliers is even better. And having global supplies of petroleum exceed demand by about the production level of Iran would be outstanding.
