Mark Stokes, executive director at the US-based Project 2049 Institute and a vocal proponent of a submarine program for Taiwan, said the Ministry of National Defense had given up on acquiring submarines from the US and had decided to launch an indigenous program with foreign assistance.
This is no easy task, as Australia's problems with their large boats show. But Iran and North Korea, of all people, build small subs. At least Taiwan doesn't need large boats since they really just need to operate within a few hundred miles of Taiwan and mostly would be needed right in the Taiwan Strait itself. Having more smaller subs would be better than a few large ones just for survivability alone even if it wouldn't be far easier to build small subs.
As an expert in the article (James Holmes, US Naval War College associate professor of strategy) notes, anti-submarine warfare is a weakness of the PLA Navy. Why it is taking this long to exploit that weakness is beyond me. But the Taiwanese need to do a lot just to gain the ability to build subs before actually building them. No time frames are set out. Which is a problem. Pity the decision wasn't taken 8 years ago when Taiwan turned down a US-brokered deal to get old Italian subs.
While the subs are absolutely necessary, in the short run no indigenous subs will patrol the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan needs forces now to deter the Chinese:
However, this would be a very long-term project whose outcome remains uncertain, Holmes said.
Holmes nevertheless believes Taiwan should focus instead on small craft analogous to China’s Type 022 Houbei fast attack missile boat, which in his view would be a better investment, and come without the delay and uncertainty involved in fielding a proven submarine design.
I know some analysts think that Chinese air power will make it impossible for Taiwan to fight in the Taiwan Strait, I disagree. At worst, the need to find and sink Taiwan's small craft would dilute Chinese air power from other tasks.
But the role of small craft would not just be sacrificial. I think I've mentioned that I think Taiwan's navy should have two components. One, of larger ships, to protect Taiwan's sea lines of communication open out to the east of the island; and two, of subs and small missile-armed craft to operate in the Taiwan Strait.
Small surface craft operating close to ground clutter along Taiwan's western shore and among Taiwanese held islands, could survive long enough to hurt the Chinese invasion fleet. Backed by long-range cruise missiles, mobile shore-based anti-ship missiles, aircraft, and helicopters (and even artillery), Taiwan can fight the Chinese invasion from China's ports to Taiwan itself. So Taiwan should absolutely build small boats now. But having subs is too valuable to not pursue. Once can wish in 2011 that Taiwan had made the decision to build their own subs in 2003. If China doesn't attack in the near future, eventually Taiwan will be grateful they made the decision now.
Hopefully it isn't too little and too late to increase the uncertainty in Chinese minds about what can survive the trip across the strait during war.
UPDATE: More on the sub-building rumors. I still think Russia should be an option for conventional subs. Russia has an interest in keeping China pointed out to sea, and making sure Taiwan will be around is a good way to keep thoughts of Russia's valuable and vulnerable Far East in the back of Peking's thoughts rather than the next item on the to-do list.
