A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee said on Monday that the military was set to practice its ability to close the Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world, but there was no official confirmation.
The legislator, Parviz Sarvari, told the student news agency ISNA: "Soon we will hold a military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."
Of course, if closing the Strait of Hormuz was as good a threat as they claim, why would they need nuclear weapons to deter us from attacking them?
Well, there is that one-bomb country, Israel, but let's stick with the Persian Gulf issue.
The moment Iran actually acts to close the Strait of Hormuz will be their high water mark. The price of oil will skyrocket. If that scares the West away, they win.
But if we don't panic, Iran's position starts deteriorating.
First, Iran loses almost all of their oil export revenue since they won't be able to export oil, too. This is why Iran never tried to close the Strait of Hormuz in the Iran-Iraq War.
Second, Western countries and private companies start releasing petroleum reserves, which will at least make up for part of the loss of oil exports. And remember that the line of tankers stretching from the Gulf to their destinations will continue to sail to Western ports, meaning that there will be no loss of actual oil for some time. Whoever can increase production will announce they are doing so (there's a lot of money to be made when prices skyrocket, remember).
Then Western countries take action to escort tankers and clear mines in the Gulf. So people will begin to understand that the line of tankers will continue, even if Iran doesn't contribute to the flow. We successfully protected tanker traffic in 1987-1988 in the Tanker War portion of the Iran-Iraq War.
Then, as we protect oil exports, we blockade Iran. Despite Iran's oil exports, they need to import refined gasoline. No income and no gasoline will not do good things to the popularity of the mullahs. Sure, some black market trade will take place across the Iraqi and Turkish borders, but it won't be enough. Iranians will hurt more than Westerners.
With much of the Gulf and West (and even China--but not oil exporting Russia) upset with Iran and willing to back a unified response to get the oil flowing, Iran will find that they have embarked on a Sicilian Expedition of epic proportions that simply creates enemies where before there were none. Countries may be unwilling to back American military action when they fear our action will cause oil prices to shoot up, but if Iran creates what these countries fear? Well, at that point, only backing American military action can end the spike in oil prices by defeating Iran. Oops.
Iran's threat to close the oil export routes in the Gulf is surely real. But they will find the collateral damage to themselves will be fatal if we rise to the occasion and fight back. Iran can beat their chest and fling poo at us. It is scary. But in the end, Iran is inside the cage and we have the key to the lock.
