The Turkish military is currently holding a five-day military exercise on the Syrian border. The last time such a major exercise occurred was 13 years ago when Ankara threatened to invade Syria unless it expelled the Turkish Kurdish rebel leader, Abdullah Ocalan. The diplomatic correspondent for the Turkish newspaper Milliyet, Semih Idiz, says the exercises are aimed at sending a message to the Syrians.
"This will represent a kind of muscle flexing on Turkey's part," said Idiz. "But I think we've got a long way for this to translate into a some kind of military confrontation. But I don't think we are at that stage. But its a clear indication the government has given up on Damascus. and its now concerned about protecting its 850-kilometer border with this country."
Well, there is that nearly 2-month old Turkish ultimatum still on the table. Will this new threat compel Assad to reform or leave?
The experts say Turkey wouldn't invade. But Turkey is letting Syrian opposition set up in Turkey. Even without setting up humanitarian zones inside Syria along the border (which I wouldn't count as an "invasion"), this will allow a sanctuary for opponents to develop across the border. Syrian army defectors may have a safer place to flee to rather than going home where they would have to fight or die (or go to prison). This could turn a trickle into a flood.
Iran is not likely to be amused by this and other Turkish moves. And Iran is expressing their anger:
A key aide to Iran's supreme leader said on Saturday Turkey must radically rethink its policies on Syria, the NATO missile shield and promoting Muslim secularism in the Arab world -- or face trouble from its own people and neighbors.
No direct threat, Without nukes, Iran would have a heck of a time making headway into eastern Turkey. Iran's military is pretty weak and requires weak opponents to defeat. The Turks are unlikely to be impressed with the diplomatic equivalent of chest thumping and flinging poo.
Turkey is flirting with an independent role in the Middle East. But doing so may make them want to stay within the warm embrace of NATO. And the Turks might learn to value friendship with Israel again. Restoring Ottoman glories is unlikely to win friends in the Arab world or in Iran.
But practicing with their military will be helpful even if it doesn't convince the Syrian government to rein in their bully boys. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Turks establish humanitarian safe zones inside Syria. Syria wouldn't have the horses to counter-attack and suppress demonstrations and fight the budding armed insurrection.
