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Saturday, October 22, 2011

How Do You Solve a Problem Like Erdogan?

I've been torn about Turkey. She is a NATO member that turned us down (narrowly in parliament) when we asked to deploy 4th Infantry Division for Operation Iraqi Freedom from Turkish territory. Turkey hosts missile defenses and pressures Syria but threatens Israel and flirts with China and Iran. Can they be trusted with our NATO secrets? Should we risk pushing them even further away because they've moved away from us? Really, Turkey isn't the ally we'd like but we'd be thrilled to have Pakistan as closely aligned with us as Turkey is.

So we have to be patient, I think. Take precautions where we are worried and support pro-American and pro-Western elements within Turkey. And wait for Turkish outreach efforts to founder as much as our "open hand extended:"

Tehran has reacted with anger and threats over Ankara's decision to allow NATO to deploy a radar as part of its antimissile system.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has condemned the decision, while senior Iranian military commanders and government officials have warned of consequences.

"This is very serious, this is important for Iran, Iran does not like it," says Iran analyst Jamsid Assadi of France's Burgundy School of Business. "Iran is feeling very much more isolated and in danger. And if for example when I read Iranian press, especially the very conservative ones, they criticize very clearly what's happening."

Ankara's decision is widely seen as a military and diplomatic victory for Washington, confirming Turkey's commitment to its NATO partners, over its Iranian neighbor.

It's a turn away from the trend of the past few years, when Turkey's Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) had prioritized deepening its relations with Tehran as part of its policy of "zero problems" with its neighbors.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan at one point even described Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad as a good friend of Turkey, and criticized Ankara's Western allies for their tough stance toward Tehran over its nuclear program.

Let's admit some good diplomacy when we see it. Tightening our alliance with Turkey while loosening Turkish-Iranian ties is a good day of State Department work.