So Turkey now threatens war with Israel:
Turkey’s Islamic government has backed itself into a corner by demanding Israel apologize for defending itself when halting the 2010 blockade breaking ships. The Turks demand an apology, compensation and an end to the blockade. This, despite the fact that Hamas (and many other groups in Gaza) are recognized as international terrorists and that Turkish activists on the ships were videoed attacking the Israeli boarding party. The Turks will not back down, and now threaten to send warships to escort yet another group of blockade breakers.
So Turkey has a population of over 70 million and a GDP (2007) of $653 billion.
Israel has a population of 6.5 million and a GDP of $165 billion.
Advantage for long war of attrition: Turkey.
Turkey's army has 402,000 active army troops and 259,000 reservists, with about 8,000 tanks and armored fighting vehicles plus over 1,500 larger caliber tube and rocket artillery pieces. The Turks have a good reputation from the Korean War as tough fighters.
Israel's army has 133,000 active army troops and 500,000 reservists (which can be mobilized quickly), with about 14,000 tanks and armored fighting vehicles plus over 2,000 larger caliber tube and rocket artillery pieces. The Israelis are generally better, with a tradition of winning and adapting.
Advantage for short ground war: Israel.
Turkey's navy has 48,000 personnel plus 55,000 reservists with 13 submarines, 24 frigates, and 42 patrol craft.
Israel's navy has 19,500 (including reservists) with 3 submarines, 3 corvettes, and 52 patrol craft.
Advantage: Turkey.
Turkey's air force has 60,000 (and 65,000 reservists) with 435 combat aircraft (including over 200 F-16s but also including 130+ updated but still old F-4 Phantoms).
Israel's air force has 34,000 (and 55,000 reservists) with 400 combat aircraft (including about 240 F-16s and 90 F-15s, but also 40 older A-4s plus 200+ A-4/F-4/ Kfir (a Mirage clone, I think) in reserve). Plus lots of experience. And Israel did a lot of work on Turkish planes so knows them as well as their own.
Advantage: Israel.
Turkey has Greece to watch, 36,000 troops on Cyprus, and 20% of their population (Kurds) not quite trusted with resistance active in the southeast.
Israel has Hezbollah, West Bank Palestinians, Iran, and 19% of their population (Arabs) not quite trusted fully.
Advantage: Israel. Although if Egypt renounces their peace treaty with Israel, this measure flips to Turkey.
Turkey has no nukes--notwithstanding Pakistan's claim that they have "Islam's" nukes.
Israel has nukes.
Advantage: Israel.
So if Turkey tries to run the blockade, they'll have to push their ships south where the Israelis will be waiting, which will even the odds a good deal. Damaged Israeli vessels can retreat to port while Turkish cripples would be vulnerable to being sunk on the longer trip home. Israel's air force will tip the scales considerably at sea. Israel wins.
Israel would not be capable of doing more than raiding close to Turkey with their navy. Israel can't win at sea.
In the air, Israel wins. No doubt. But losses might make it a Pyrrhic victory. I'll guess Israel gets a good kill ratio, but a Turkish opponent is new so I don't know for sure.
If Turkey sends troops on the ground through Syria and perhaps Lebanon to attack Israel, Israel wins on the ground during the first month of fighting.
If Israel hasn't defeated Turkey to end the war in that month, Turkey gains the advantage for a long war with their greater population and GDP, plus Israel's GDP will hurt with so many reservists pulled from the civilian economy.
Each side has opportunities to support unrest in the other side's home front and each could pull in allies to help in a long war, so that may be a draw in capabilities. And Israel would risk entangling NATO, depending on the circumstances. Or NATO gets scared witless of Turkey dragging them into wars in the Middle East that they resisted when we wanted European help in Iraq, and Turkey is cut loose from the alliance. Turkey has the bigger opportunity to lose big.
But Turkey can't really crush Israel even if the Turks wear down the Israeli military in a war of attrition since Israel retains nuclear weapons that could be used to prevent national defeat in a long war. But then every Moslem country will want nukes and there will be no stopping them from doing so with this example in the air. Everyone probably loses.
The bottom line is that Turkey threatening Israel with an act of war to escort blockade runners to Gaza is pure insanity. Heck, it is almost coup bait for the long-suffering Turkish military to just take over and save themselves from the slow death the pro-Islamic government is inflicting on it.
UPDATE: You know, I hate to contemplate what I'd do if I was sitting around a table playing a board game on this. But if I was playing Turkey and determined to deploy military muscle in my strongest suit to threaten Israel over the Gaza blockade, I'd reach out to Iran to provide a deterrent using the threat of chemical weapons on missiles and the remote chance that Iran already has a purchased North Korean warhead; then I'd use my already given ultimatum to Syria to get them to give Turkey permission to send a full corps to the Golan Heights where it would sit in defesnive positions and force Israel to maintain a costly heightened defense posture.while I tried to get the blockade broken. And strengthen my ties with Syria and Iran.
If it was a game, of course.
