Turkey said on Thursday it would escort aid ships to Gaza and would not allow a repetition of last year's Israeli raid that killed nine Turks, setting the stage for a potential naval confrontation with its former ally.
I think that Israel's air power would allow Israel to win any naval confrontation, but just fighting Turkey would be a strategic loss. It is understandable that the Israelis don't want to comment on the Turkish threat:
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said earlier on Thursday that Israel and Turkey will eventually mend fences rather than become foes, describing their unprecedented dispute over Gaza as "spilled milk." ...
"Ultimately this wave will pass. We recognize reality. They recognize reality," Barak told Israel Radio. "We are the two countries that are most important to the West in the region ... I am certain that we can overcome these (disagreements)."
The problem is, Turkish reality is diverging a great deal from Israeli reality.
I looked at the balance here.
Israel needs to find a way to halt the convoy without shooting or boarding. If Israel's bad relations are to pass, it is the highest priority to prevent a Turkish-Israeli clash no matter how provocative Turkey is. Halting the convoy would be a Pyrrhic Victory, at best.
I think it might even be best for Israel to simply let the convoy proceed to Gaza, but be prepared with naval commandos, a larger force of paratroopers, and engineers landed by sea and flown in wherever the convoy goes to set up a quick customs station to inspect the goods coming in. And keep a substantial mechanized force standing by in Israel to link up with the beachhead in case it gets ugly ashore.
Israel doesn't oppose or block humanitarian aid, after all--just weapons and materials useful to fight Israel. I doubt the convoy organizers would be bold enough to ship in weapons (not this time, of course). But letting in some weapons would be far better than putting Turkey in the enemy column.
UPDATE: Why are Israelis convinced that Turkish views of reality are still similar to their own?
UPDATE: And relations with Egypt continue to fray:
Israel and Egypt's leadership tried Saturday to limit the damage in ties after protesters stormed Israel's embassy in Cairo, trashing offices and prompting the evacuation of nearly the entire staff from Egypt in the worst crisis between the countries since their 1979 peace treaty.
The 13-hour rampage deepened Israel's fears that it is growing increasingly isolated amid the Arab world's uprisings and, in particular, that Egypt is turning steadily against it after the fall of Hosni Mubarak, the authoritarian leader who was a close ally.
This is touchy. Israel really can't afford to have Turkey and Egypt turn hostile. Although it is unfair to say that the fall of Mubarak removed a ruler willing to suppress anti-Israeli sentiments. Mubarak cultivated anti-Israeli sentiments and suppressed pretty much everything, including acting out on those sentiments.
