Explosions and gunfire rang out in Tripoli as opponents of Muammar Gaddafi launched an uprising and rebel forces edged toward the city, declaring a final push to end his four-decade rule. ...
At daybreak, more than 12 hours after the fighting first broke out, shooting could still be heard in the capital, though it was less heavy and sustained. ...
"Gaddafi's forces are getting reinforcements to comb the capital," said the activist, who spoke to a Reuters reporter outside Libya. ...
His security forces, facing rebel advances on three fronts, have not buckled as some rebels had predicted. The uprising appeared to be isolated to a few neighborhoods, and had not spread to the whole city.
It was worth the shot to try to bounce the city on the run to see if recent loyalist setbacks had shaken their morale enough so that a good push would topple them over.
Remember our "Thunder Run" into Baghdad during the major combat operations portion of the war? There were lots of predictions of a modern Stalingrad, but we probed in force, met ineffective resistance (although the Battles of Moe, Larry, and Curly that held open our supply line are surely worthy of a movie), and assaulted the capital instead of laying siege.
The most telling statement is from NATO:
NATO says the situation in Libya is changing quickly and it's becoming more difficult to identify and engage targets for airstrikes as the uprising against Moammar Gadhafi gains momentum.
The NATO spokesman spoke of fighting in towns and villages as if people are taking up arms in the belief that victory is at hand. That and the inability to identify a frontline indicate a pursuit, really.
Stratfor also addresses the situation and emphasizes the difficulty of capturing a defended city. Since the loyalists held in the face of the surprise uprising, that may be the situation we face. Even near Zawiyah, loyalists are still fighting and not breaking. The loyalists have weakened considerably, as I've noted, but have not been destroyed.
The surprise attack on Tripoli didn't crack the morale of the loyalists defending the city. The attack appeared to be an uprising with arms smuggled in at the last minute.
In the east, the rebels appear to still be at Brega (Burayqah), a long way from Tripoli.
And the western rebels remain on a roll, even if they are still fighting in and around Zawiyah. Tripoli may be cut off. The only possible exception is a route to the deep south that may be usable.
If the loyalists remain determined to fight, they can hold out in Tripoli. If they have weapons and ammunition, the international community will keep the food and medicine flowing. Remember, this is a humanitarian intervention so blockading the city to starve it into submission isn't going to happen. Let's watch the eastern front. If the Sirte region stops being a stronghold for the loyalists and the eastern rebels can motor along the coast to link up with Misrata and press on to Tripoli, it's the end game for sure.
If the Sirte region holds fast, Khaddafi's hopes of enduring long enough to survive in power may be dwindling but they will be real.
My guess is that the western rebels need help from the eastern rebels because they don't have the horses to pull off an assault on Tripoli if the city is firmly defended. Most of the forces in those towns and villages in the west that appear to be rising up will not be available to march on Tripoli. They will remain to hold the gains but that is all that can be expected of them except for relatively small numbers of volunteers who will march to Trpoli. Remember, how long has the Misrata front been quiet? The rebels there managed to push the loyalists back from the siege lines, but once that was done we haven't seen the Misrata rebels do much fighting. They secured their home and stopped.
As I've concluded, the Khaddafi forces need something dramatic to save them now. Even a major loss of civilian life in a NATO bombing error wouldn't be enough at this point, I think, to stop the NATO air assault. Even loyalist use of chemical weapons probably would not be enough unless Khaddafi has the forces to exploit any confusion and panic that the weapons will cause in rebel ranks. The loyalists still fight defensive battles but it has been a while since they showed they can advance--and they are quickly running out of room to retreat.
No, only outside forces can change the trajectory. Either the Russians and Chinese save Khaddafi somehow by engineering a humanitarian ceasefire; the eastern rebels cut a deal with Khaddafi (who perhaps leaves for exile in Tunisia as a symbol of victory, if nothing else, leaving his loyalists in power) for shared power to jointly turn on the rather alien western rebels from the mountains; or there is a major financial panic in Europe as one of the EU PIIGs defaults and the Euro comes under tremendous pressure, which halts the NATO air campaign as Europe turns inward. Absent these latest rebel advances in the west, I figured a stalemate would stretch into the fall, and once that happened NATO will to continue to fight through Christmas and the New Year would be such a daunting prospect that the alliance would waver and crack. Now, Khaddafi's chances of holding off that long seem dim. I don't rule it out, but it doesn't seem likely.
It would be nice to get a victory out of this intervention. Especially with Assad under tremendous pressure, it would be nice if the Syrian people saw signs that they too could win if they hang on. Having NATO air power freed up would be a subtle bit of pressure, too.
The rebels have cobbled together an army of sorts sufficient to exploit NATO air strikes to get them this far. I don't know if they have enough of an army to get them the last 100 yards. NATO has done well to hold together and bomb carefully enough to deny Khaddafi propaganda points sufficient to turn European or Arab public opinion decisively against the intervention.
But Khaddafi has done well to hold off NATO for five months with what little he had. But how many of his mercenaries will stick around for the end game? Or are many left now? I hear little about this angle these days.
Fighting to the last man is rarely done in real life. Hopefully Khaddafi's loyalists aren't made of stern stuff to fuel that level of resistance, and at some point as they look around at their situation they start to decide it is time to take off the uniform and go home.
UPDATE: Fighting appears to be continuing inside Tripoli. Those rebels need help from outside.
UPDATE: A couple more hits like this in short order and the loyalists in Tripoli will collapse:
As Associated Press reporter with the rebels rapidly advancing toward Tripoli saw them take over the base of the Khamis Brigade, 16 miles west of Tripoli. After a brief gunbattle, Gadhafi's forces fled what was once a major symbol of the regime's power.
Gadhafi's 27-year-old son Khamis commands the 32nd Brigade, also known simply as the Khamis Brigade, one of the best trained and equipped units in the Libyan military.
Inside the base, hundreds of rebels cheered wildly and danced, raising the rebel flag on the front gate of a large, gray wall enclosing the compound. They seized large stores of weapons, driving away with truckloads of whatever arms they could get their hands on.
Outstanding. Oh, and the rebels taunted Khaddafi as "frizz-head." No fear.
UPDATE: Reports in the afternoon that rebels are approaching Tripoli from the west and reaching the city suburbs without meeting resistance. The uprising there is still going on, too, and has not been put down:
The Libyan rebels' main western force is reported to be on the outskirts of Tripoli, while opposition fighters inside the capital claim they have taken control of several districts.
The loss of fear by the rebels is clear as they advance. If rank-and-file loyalists don't lay down their arms soon, they risk missing the window where giving up is considered "defecting" to a grateful rebellion and becoming "surrendering" to face justice for being part of the regime to the bitter end.
As opposed to the heady early days of the rebellion when I figured Khaddafi had options to fight back, this has a "last days" vibe. Only dramatic outside events could change the game, now.
I'm relieved we managed to hang with this long enough to make sure Khaddafi does indeed go.
UPDATE: Minutes before the evening starts here, TV reports that the BBC is stating that Khaddafi is in Algeria. That window for Khaddafi supporters to defect just closed. Now it is just surrendering to the rebels and pray for leniency.
UPDATE: The rebels captured one of Khaddafi's sons. Rebels appear to be moving at will into Tripoli. Yep, game over for the Khaddafi regime.
Question: What's happening around Sirte?
