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Friday, August 26, 2011

Subcontractor

My view of Iran's nuclear strategy has been that with so much scrutiny directed at Iran, the best way to protect against discovery or bombing isn't to dig deep (although that is useful) but to send components abroad. North Korea, Syria, and possibly Venezuela make sense for Iran. Syria  is the case in point given the nuclear facility Israel bombed four years ago, even though we officially think Iran is years from a nuclear capability via the plutonium route:


With such a lengthy timetable, IAEA inspectors roaming Iran, and American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, Tehran may have chosen to outsource plutonium production to Syria - a safer option, because al-Kibar was still undetected, and a faster one, because by then North Korea was technologically ahead of the game.    
      

That's the biggest problem with treating the symptoms (nuclear advancement) rather than the disease (the regime itself). I don't worry about France with nuclear weapons. I worry about Iran under the mullahs without nuclear weapons.

If Iran's people go out on the streets again to protest their regime, I hope we don't give them the back of our outstretched hand (again).