Shiny Object

Mad Minerva notes the Chinese sea trials of their new aircraft carrier and Taiwan's response that they have carrier-killer missiles.

Of course, everyone mentions that the Chinese are a long way from having a carrier fleet with combat value. Including me. Indeed, China says their new carrier is just for tests to gain knowledge to build their own hulls from the keel up. It will be a decade or more before China has carrier battle groups even approaching our battle groups.

But I hope the Taiwanese military isn't so focused on the Chinese carrier and the state of the carrier plans that they forget that China doesn't need a carrier fleet to invade and conquer Taiwan.

Remember, China already has this amazing platform that can carry tens of thousands of planes and tens of thousands of missiles. It can base warships, amphibious warfare ships, and transport vessels of all sizes. It can even host ground troops prior to invasion. And all this within easy range of Taiwan.

And windmills and high-speed trains, too! But I digress.

This amazing platform is called "mainland China." Check out a map if you don't believe me. It's like, what, a hundred miles away?

Discussing China's carrier plans and debating whether it will be a decade or two before they are really combat ready risks missing the point that China does not need even a single aircraft carrier to conquer Taiwan. China could take a shot tomorrow and have a decent chance of winning if it is just a battle between China and Taiwan.

Oh sure, if I was going to invade Taiwan next year, I'd load up my one ex-Soviet carrier with whatever can take off and land and sail it east of Taiwan and south of Japan, where it would be a speed bump to slow down the US Navy if we rush to Taiwan's aid.

Our eye naturally goes to the shiny object that China is showing us. Let's not be distracted.