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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

An Evolving Capability

It wasn't long ago that people were saying that Israel could not attack Iran to hit their nuclear infrastructure. I disagreed. Israel can't do as thorough a job as we could, but if the choice is Iran going nuclear or buying time to delay their nuclear debut, Israel can indeed strike Iran.

Now the Israelis military seems to have revised the objections to be more in line with my thinking. Said a "senior Israeli defense official":

"We're not talking about Iraq or Syria where one strike would derail a program," the official said, referring to Israel's 1981 air strike that destroyed Iraq's atomic reactor and the bombing in 2007 of a Syrian site which the U.N. atomic agency said was very likely a nuclear reactor.

"With Iran it's a different project. There is no one silver bullet you can hit and that's over," the official said.

No. No silver bullet. Indeed, it is possible that even we can't really be sure we've stopped Iran with a really thorough strike campaign that lasts weeks. Iran likely has back up sites abroad that don't need to be deep underground to avoid our bunker buster capabilities.