The Pakistanis believe a lot of strange things. They think India wants to capture that mess of a country. They think jihadis aren't camped out in Pakistan. They think America is their enemy. And they think foreigners are conspiring to keep Pakistan down. Pakistan is a deeply disturbed ally.
So when we interrupt aid to send a message (believing we can afford to?), Pakistan thinks they can just plug China into the lead role of protecting Pakistan:
Pakistan’s increasingly “close and effective defense ties” with China will allow Islamabad to “fill the gap” arising from the prospect of reduced military aid from the United States, a Pakistani official has said.
The Obama administration has suspended some 800 million dollars in military assistance to Pakistan in a show of displeasure over its cutback on US trainers, limits on visas for US personnel and other rubs.
After years of saying they need nukes to deter an Indian invasion, the Pakistanis seem to forget that their nukes deter an Indian invasion--assuming India's leaders get a serious dose of stupid in their drinking water and decide it would be a good idea to have responsibility for running Pakistan.
Sure, China could provide aid and arms to Pakistan. Over the next decades, Chinese arms will improve in quality to match ours, I'm sure.
But China can't provide the one critical service for Pakistan that America can (if we choose): prevent an Indian blockade of Pakistan.
That is the most lethal threat India has. India can blockade Pakistan and there isn't a lot Pakistan can do to stop it other than threatening to nuke Indian cities. And India has nukes, too. Only America has the naval and air power that could keep Pakistan's sea lines of communication open.
China will take many decades to be able to project power through the gauntlet of Southeast Asia (and Australia) into the Indian Ocean where whatever survives will then face Indian and American naval power. Sure, land-based missiles will help China in the northern Indian Ocean one day. But even if that is the decisive weapon for Chinese naval power, Pakistan will starve before an Indian blockade could be broken by anyone but us.
So Pakistan shouldn't be confused that they can just ignore our anger over their bad behavior and get what they need from China. Pakistan has created a situation where we are their ally because we need them and not because we particularly like them. That's a bad place to be.
But they might think just that, I suppose. What's one more strange thing that they believe, eh?
