Iraqis are concerned about an increasingly authoritarian state, widespread corruption, and continuing acts of terrorism, says Iraq expert Sean Kane, who recently returned from the country. Kane says tensions between Shiites and Sunnis have been "remagnified" by the popular revolt in Bahrain against a Sunni monarchy backed by Saudi Arabia, and by events in Syria, where the Alawite leadership of President Bashar al-Assad is under pressure. As to the withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of this year, Kane says there's a broad political consensus that some U.S. troops should remain, and that Iraq isn't ready to take full charge of its external defense. But neither Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government, nor Ayad Allawi's opposition, want to take the first step and call for the extension of U.S. troops.
I'm actually less worried about an Iranian overt attack than I am in making sure our robust military presence helps fight corruption and develop rule of law in Iraq while providing assurances to all political parties that attempts to settle political differences outside of the political process will be stopped by American troops siding with the Iraqis who work within the system without resorting to violence.
I don't expect Iraq to be perfect, but it is better than the Saddam regime. What we've achieved is worth defending. I believe we can help Iraqis make Iraq better in the years and decades to come. And I believe the good example Iraq can set--with our continued support--will pay dividends in the wider Arab and Moslem worlds. Worse, failure in Iraq will represent a defeat in the war on terror as despots see that despotism can survive even a major American effort.
It is worth the effort to defend what we've achieved at the price we and Iraqis have paid the last 8 years.
How can we possibly just walk away now?
UPDATE: The Iraqis have a long way to go to have a functioning and secure democracy. External and internal enemies as well as a way of thinking that doesn't promote rule of law are obstacles to building on our military victories over Saddam and then Baathist, pro-Iranian Shia, and al Qaeda insurgents and terrorists. Even the Kurds who have an island of stability have a great rule of law deficit that will shake that stability if not corrected.
A robust American presence of at least 3 combat brigades plus special forces and support personnel (I'm thinking 25,000 military personnel), with a call on more forces in the region for rapid reinforcement, will give the Iraqis a fighting chance to build a democracy.
Lord knows, just the absence of Saddam's sick rule is a victory. And we've turned Iraq from an enemy into a friend. But we should aim for better than that. Think of what Japan might look like today if we hadn't stayed there after the war, and if militarist thugs had staged a coup to kill democracy in the cradle.
