Momentum

Even as signs of a negotiated settlement that leaves Khaddafi inside Libya while technically not in power seem to be percolating, the rebels are actually making progress on the ground with pushes out of Misrata (which now has a supply line by sea to eastern rebel-held Libya) toward Tripoli and by tribal rebels advancing north out of the mountains.

The rebels may not be able to sustain the pushes in the short term, but the trend is that the rebels make gains and the loyalists can't do more than retake part of what they lose. The loyalists have lost the initiative everywhere and are simply holding on hoping that NATO cracks and that Russia and the African Union can save them.

And I can't say that Khaddafi is wrong to hope that his strategy will work.

Although given the effectiveness of NATO air power it is wise for the loyalists to husband resources for the day after NATO stops bombing, the loyalists really need to make some visible gains to provide tangible symbols of success to their supporters so they will hang on long enough for the coalition to splinter and retreat from internal fissures.

UPDATE: How bizarrre is this war when NATO can't even admit we are trying to help the rebels win?!

NATO denied a Libyan government charge Thursday that the alliance is intentionally using its airstrikes to assist rebel advances, saying it is sticking to its mandate to protect civilians.

Seriously. Is this any way to win a war?