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Saturday, July 09, 2011

He Just Might Be Serious

Khaddafi again threatened to directly attack Europe for waging war on his regime:

In a speech on Libyan television, Gaddafi threatened to send hundreds of Libyans to carry out attacks in Europe in revenge for the NATO-led military campaign against him.

"Hundreds of Libyans will martyr in Europe. I told you it is eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth. But we will give them a chance to come to their senses," the Libyan leader said in an audio speech.

Like I mentioned before, what has he got to lose by attacking? Maybe an attack or two will drive Europe out of the war. Or at least a key nation out of the war. I strongly doubt there are hundreds of attackers, but Khaddafi could easily have some operatives in Europe ready to attack by now.

Spain might seem like the obvious choice since they were driven from Iraq by a terrorist attack on Madrid in March 2004. But if I had to choose targets, I'd hit Italy which is already divided over the war and its cost. Italy provides the bulk of the land bases close to Libya and losing Italy would drive up the cost of waging the war. I'd also try to get refugees fleeing the war heading for Italy to pile on pressure.

Greece could be a target, too. Not for their basing (although I believe Crete is being used as a base for the operations), but to attack the rest of Europe by trying to trigger a financial crisis that Europe will worry will spread and kill the Euro. That could quickly spread to Italy and Spain.

With rebels grinding away at Khaddafi's forces, Khaddafi may feel that he needs to do something dramatic to show his own followers that they aren't just sitting there and taking the blows waiting for the end to come.

UPDATE: I think Khaddafi really will try to attack a target in Europe. He's firing up his base with shouted exhortations; by scraping up naval forces for a failed attempt to raid Misrata from the sea; and trying to counter-attack at Gualish, southwest of Tripoli, even as his forces hold fast at Zlitan on the Misrata-to-Tripoli road. A blow in Europe would fit with the signs of resistance still left in the regime forces.

Of course, post-9/11, the Europeans have nearly a decade of practice in battling terrorists. So it isn't the old days when Libya could set off a bomb in a German night club with no problem. Still, I bet Khaddafi tries.