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Sunday, July 31, 2011

Cracking

Reports of Syrian troops wavering in their loyalty and even defecting have been common since the protests and violent crackdown began. Only one regular army division plus the Republican Guard force (a division-sized force of 3 line brigades and an artillery brigade) have been loyal (add in loyal militia, secret police, and any imported thugs, too) and willing to shoot at civilians. The rest have been kept in the barracks out of fear they will defect or desert.

Now there is a report of open fighting in Hama:

State-run news agency SANA on Sunday said gunmen in Hama and Deir el-Zour had erected barricades and sand barriers in the streets, and that extremists in Hama torched police stations, destroyed public and private property and fired from rooftops.

Well, the government would call them extremists. But there does seem to be armed resistance to the government, regardless of how the government would like to spin it.

And (via Instapundit link) now some Syrian officers are openly calling for revolt. A major general (two stars, if their rank structure is similar to ours, which would mean he could command a division) is the ranking officer, it seems.

Not a small fry but hardly a "top general" as the story says. But it is the most visible crack we've seen so far. If some more major generals flip or a higher ranking general makes the leap, then we might be able to say that the regime is falling apart.

UPDATE: Strategypage has a nice post on the Syrian situation, including this bit on the loyal forces:

The army is concerned about the loyalty of the army. With at least half the Syrian 400,000 security forces (police and army) of uncertain reliability, the government is using the 100,000 or so reliable killers (mainly Republican Guard and secret police, plus Hezbollah gunmen from Lebanon and security specialists from Iran) to terrorize (and slaughter, if need be) those civilians who continue to oppose the government. This is a risky strategy, because if enough less reliable troops and police shoot back, it's all over for the dictatorship. But the government hard-liners, led by the president's brother (Maher Assad), have won the argument over how to handle the unrest. There's no going back from this. Iran continues to send in more security experts, and perhaps trained killers as well. More Hezbollah gunmen continue to arrive from Lebanon. The Assad clan apparently is ready for a fight to the death.

Also, the tank assault on Hama isn't facing armed resistance according to the post. It may just be the usual government propaganda that foreigners are behind the protests and a justification for shooting. I thought it sounded like there was some truth behind it. Eventually, I figure, protesters will tire of just taking in on the chin and will fight back. But apparently not yet. It's hard to tell without reporters on the ground.