The current research effort involved developing and conducting an expert elicitation exercise to complete the scorecard for operations in Afghanistan in early 2011. A panel of 11 experts on Afghanistan were asked to make “worst-case” assessments of the scorecard factors. Based on consensus results for the scorecard, early 2011 Afghanistan scores +3.5. This score is lower than the lowest-scoring COIN win in the past 30 years (which was +5), but it is higher than the highest-scoring loss (which was 0). This highlighted that certain factors are absent whose presence would likely increase the prospects for success.
Factors that need improvement are:
Early 2011 Afghanistan was scored as having eight of a possible 15 good factors present and thus seven (actually, six and two half-points) absent. The absent factors are as follows:
• COIN force realizes at least two strategic communication factors
• COIN force reduces at least three tangible support factors
• Government realizes at least two government legitimacy factors
• Government/state is competent
• Majority of population in area of conflict supports/favors COIN forces (0.5)
• COIN force establishes and then expands secure areas (0.5)
• COIN force provides or ensures provision of basic services in areas it controls or claims
to control
• Perception of security created
Two areas that drag us down are governance (services, competency, and legitimacy) and population security (cutting support for insurgents along with providing perceived security). The former is why I want to bypass the central government as much as possible to bolster local governance legitimacy which is where most people have contact with "the government." Security for the people must come from counter-insurgency inside Afghanistan and reducing support flowing to insurgents from Pakistan and to a much lesser extent Iran.
We have our work cut out for our side, assuming the worst interpretation of the data. But after 10 years of war, we haven't alienated the people of Afghanistan into rallying against "invaders." Far from being a doomed fight, we can win.
