Victory Within Their Limitations

I always concede that America is far more powerful than China even as we discuss China's rise. This will be true for many decades more, at least. The problem, as I've droned on about for years now, is that if a battle with China takes place close to China, it will take America time to mobilize and project forces close to China. Before we do that, China increasingly can count on a period of time when their forces will be superior to ours in a battle close to China. The question is, can China win a war in that period of time?

Leon Panetta highlights this basic fact of life:

CIA director Leon Panetta, who has been nominated to succeed Defense Secretary Robert Gates, said China appears to be building the capability “to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity conflicts” along its borders.

“Its near-term focus appears to be on preparing for potential contingencies involving Taiwan, including possible U.S. military intervention,” Panetta said in a 79-page set of answers to questions from the Senate Armed Services Committee in advance of his confirmation hearing, scheduled for June 9.

Ah yes, I remember the days when saying that China could attempt a quick victory before we can intervene led to general mockery in some quarters.

I was off on my timing, obviously. But the scenario still holds true, because it is based on the basic reality of the strategic balance of power that has been developing and that will hold true for quite some time.