It seemed like the siege of Tobruk during the World War II North African campaign. While it held, pushing east was difficult. But if captured, it frees resources to push east (then into Egypt and now into eastern Libya). Yet Misrata held on even as Ajdabiya's defenses were penetrated quickly (and saved only by NATO intervention).
And now the Misrata rebels are even expanding their perimeter and pushing toward Tripoli:
Libya's rebels have traded heavy artillery fire with Muammar Gaddafi's forces near the western city of Zlitan as they tried to take government-held territory east of the capital Tripoli.
The city, 160 km (100 miles) from Tripoli, is the next major town on the Mediterranean coastal road to the capital from the rebel stronghold of Misrata. Capturing it would greatly advance the rebels' strategy of cutting off the capital from all sides.
As the rebels initially expanded out recently, I wondered if they had the forces to hold a wider perimeter and if they were just thinning out their lines dangerously. I wondered if the loyalists could then finally penetrate that thinner line and seize Misrata.
I still can't see the rebels from Misrata actually driving on Tripoli unless loyalist defections really ramp up and recruits roll in to the Misrata-based rebels as civilians between Misrata and Tripoli revolt.
Yet this Misrata bridgehead might still be a dagger aimed at Tripoli if NATO takes advantage of it. I've long held that a single good NATO composite division could land near Tripoli and capture the capital, sending the regime into flight and paving the way for the rebels to seize control. Rebel success at Misrata in expanding the perimeter toward Tripoli opens the possibility that instead of having to create a bridgehead or airhead as a stepping stone to Tripoli in a new Inchon campaign, NATO could simply sail forces into a friendly Misrata and avoid the forced entry part of invasion.
Of course, the Misrata enclave which has dropped in our lap could remain unexploited in a modern version of the Remagen Bridge, where an unexpected bonanza could not be allowed to distract us from the plan.
Hey! Maybe this is just leading to zones of occupation that splits Libya with patrons of each side getting their piece of the pie. Let's see: Russians in the northwest; French in the coastal center; British in the coastal east; and the African Union in the south. Maybe Misrata itself gets the Berlin treatment given its rebel status but with its importance to Tripoli.
Heck, as long as I'm getting carried away with World War II analogies for this new North African war, why not go the full Monty?
