The motivation for change does not, however, mean that the change will be good or what the protesters say they want. And even if the Arab Spring results in little or no real change for the better, it doesn't make the yearning any less real.
It does mean we must do more than just watch and hope for the best. We have to stay involved to shape the outcome that will justify the protesters' hopes and give them what they need even though many don't know how to get what they want. Not having lived under democracy, yearning for democracy does not mean they know what goes into it.
Tunisia is certainly important to help, but they are small and peripheral. Libya and Syria are important, but they are still in the "throw the bums out" phase. Egypt is the main prize in fighting for an Arab Spring that isn't just putting new name plates on the tables where elites govern for their own narrow interests and factions. Strategypage discusses Egypt and the role the military has in building the post-Mubarak Egypt:
For the moment, however, it is difficult to tell which way the generals will go. The many foreign contacts Egyptians have developed over the years, are advising restraint. But if it appears that Islamic radicals are gaining too much control, the generals may feel they have no choice but to get more involved.
Let's keep involved to help Egyptian voters understand that the Islamic radicals won't fulfill their yearnings for something better than what they've endured. Let's attempt to shield the generals from having to make a choice between letting Islamists win and taking control themselves. This is the hard part. There aren't uplifting photos of protesters facing thugs or breathless stories of the Twitter Revolution to hold our attention. Now it is the dull stuff that the Egyptians need to get right. But what happens over the rest of the year will decide whether the Egyptians can only look forward to more of the same with new overlords.
Don't let Egypt be the firebreak in the freedom agenda just as the Obama administration has accepted it.
UPDATE: Related thoughts from Austin Bay:
2011's Arab Spring is an astonishing moment. Yes, somewhere on the calendar of the next decade's history a fall of lowered expectations will occur and a winter of cold disappointment -- but the hopes and passions powering it will not disappear.
Just because the Arab Spring won't automatically free Arabs (and Iranians) from their despotisms is no reason not to achieve as much as we can while there is momentum. Anything we can achieve now will be an improvement and may provide a jumping off point for the next explosion of passion for a better life.
UPDATE: and still more thoughts:
Much as President Barack Obama and the rest of us want to hope for and encourage happy outcomes from the popular rebellions sweeping the Middle East, it would be wise to seriously plan for the worst.
Basically, we hope this Arab Spring is a 1989 Eastern Eruope moment when people throw off tyrants and embrace democracy. But it could be 1918 when hopes of freedom flared as the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed and Russian Empire shed territory, but ultimately left Eastern Europeans with local tyrants who would rule in one form or another until the 1989 moment.
So should we seriously plan for the worst? Yes. Revolutions don't automatically (or even usually, I suppose) lead to something better. But better than planning for the worst as if we have nothing to say in this matter, it would be better to plan for the worst while acting to influence events so that we are closer to 1989 than 1918 in as many places as possible. And remember, when 1989 arrives, even those who experienced 1918 will appreciate that we did not abandon them to different tyrants without protest and without trying to advance history in their favor.
And if we are counting on help from domestic "human rights groups" nominally focused on improving human rights for Arabs, never forget that the human rights community always morphs into groups with a priority far different than human rights, which becomes merely a cudgel to smash their real foe.
