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Sunday, May 08, 2011

Over the Top

For those predisposed to panic, the big Taliban spring offensive that attacked Kandahar yesterday is all they need to lace up their running shoes. But what of the attack?

Fighting had stopped overnight after Afghan forces had secured the government buildings which had been attacked, Bashary added, although sporadic gunshots and explosions could be heard around the city.

So far, he said a total of 23 attackers had been killed as well as two members of the security forces. Another 40 people were wounded. Of the dead attackers, eight detonated their suicide vests. Security forces captured another four, Bashary added.

The size and scope of the attack, which began at noon Saturday, cast doubt on the effectiveness of a yearlong campaign to secure Afghanistan's south and Kandahar in particular. The city was the birthplace of the Taliban and is the economic hub of southern Afghanistan.

The Taliban claimed more than 100 fighters took part and said their goal was to take control of Kandahar city. It was the most ambitious attack since the insurgents declared the start of a spring offensive last month against NATO and Afghan troops.

Bashary said government forces had cleared and secured all the buildings attacked, including the governor's office, the intelligence agency and the police station, among others.

"Except for the Kandahar hotel, all other places have been cleared by the Afghan forces," Bashary told reporters in Kabul.

He added that nearly all the insurgents killed so far had escaped late last month from Kandahar city's main Sarposa prison. More than 480 militants escaped through a 300-meter long tunnel that took five months to dig.

Let's go through what we know.

The attack was designed to capture Kandahar. The attack has already failed after a day.

The attack was by just over 100 insurgents (NATO estimates about 50). That's about a company of infantry--or maybe a strong platoon at the lower end. That's an offensive? Designed to take a city?

Some of the attackers are reduced to holding out in one hotel. So the attack is beaten already.

From a quarter to half of the attackers died or were captured; friendlies lost 2 dead. The attack force was slaughtered with a very poor kill ratio to show for their surprise attack and use of suicide vests.

Nearly all the insurgents killed had recently escaped in that big prison break. So the Taliban apparently couldn't recruit locally or bring in cannon fodder from Pakistan. That is hardly a sign of a resurgent insurgency.

Afghan forces did the fighting. That should speak for itself.

So there you go. The Taliban came out, fought, and got their asses handed to them. Only in the press can this be described as a sign of Taliban strength.