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Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Death or Glory?

North Korean threats against South Korea, Japan, and America aren't generating the goodies that Pyongyang once achieved with those threats. Actually behaving and halting nuclear and missile work to promote aid, investment, and trade seems to be out of the question for the Pillsbury Nuke Boy.

So it is off to China (for the third time in the last year) for help:

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Kim was in Beijing "apparently for a summit meeting" with Chinese President Hu Jintao, who received Kim on both his visits last year.

Impoverished North Korea has been scouring the world for food aid and analysts say Kim is keen to ensure China's support for his youngest son to eventually take over the family dynasty that has ruled the North since its founding.

Kim will also want diplomatic support from China, his country's sole major supporter, said Cai Jian, a professor of Korean studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

"It's unlikely, but not out of question, that a national leader would directly stretch out his hand for economic aid," said Cai.

"So I would think that what he's seeking is more diplomatic and political support. For example, in dealing with South Korea and the United States," he said.

So Kim Jong-Il won't ask for goodies from China and only wants support against countries that won't provide goodies without progress on security issues? What's left?

I worry that with threats to South Korea not working and North Korean efforts to salvage their economy failing, that at some point the North Koreans will try to extort money from China instead of from the West which isn't playing that game now. The North Korean threat could take advantage of China's fears of losing their buffer state ally by telling China that Pyongyang is so desperate that they see no other option than to roll the dice and attack South Korea to conquer or die.

Then China would have a choice: provide aid or risk North Korea carrying out the threat and probably getting defeated and possibly experiencing regime or state collapse.

UPDATE: Huh:

"North Korea is now focusing its energies on economic development, and really needs a stable environment around it," Kim told Chinese President Hu Jintao, according to China's official Xinhua news agency.

"We hope there will be an easing on the Korean peninsula, are adhering to the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, and advocate restarting the six-party talks. We have always maintained sincerity about improving relations between north and south."

That's an awfully pacifistic statement for such a belligerent despot. I wonder if Kim Jong-Il did try to get Chinese backing for a military solution and got told to sit down and shut up in no uncertain terms?