But NATO's will to maintain this effort as Libyan loyalist forces lay low and avoid air strikes will fad in time. When that happens, Libya could find that by husbanding their strength they will be able to wait and exploit a lapse in NATO's surveillance to strike quickly and drive through Ajdabiya and into Benghazi as they almost did in mid-March.
How could the loyalists do that? By waiting for cloud cover, for one. Sound far-fetched in our modern day with all our surveillance tools? It already happened around the end of March, as this April 4, 2011 story relates:
A senior U.S. military official said heavy cloud cover over Libya late last week curtailed allied airstrikes. Gadhafi took advantage of the lull, pushing east into the port cities of Ras Lanouf and Brega, the official said on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning. The 48-hour extension is intended to roll back the progress made by Gadhafi's army, the official said.
Since the rebels don't have an army and NATO won't send an army, Khaddafi can afford to endure the NATO pressure (while hoping for a lovely civilian body count to pressure NATO into backing off or even a ceasefire), husband strength, and wait for another break in clear weather to hit the rebels without worrying about overwhelming NATO air power intervening.
Libya's weather shows this is certainly possible (Libya-4 would be the eastern region of Libya towards the north).
The percentage of clear days near Site Libya 4 is:
Jan.-Mar. Apr.-Jun. Jul.-Sep. Oct.-Dec.
44 60 92 39
Sure, as summer approaches, there will be far fewer opportunities for cloud cover to shield a Libyan offensive. But if you are an optimist you can believe NATO will still be in the air through the summer.
But what if the stalemate rolls into fall? Will NATO still be flying at all? If the effort is even reduced, by autumn Libya's bad weather peaks and the loyalists (perhaps throwing in their remaining helicopter arsenal, too, hoping to avoid NATO planes) will have their chance to crush the rebels before they can train and organize a decent army capable of holding their own without substantial NATO air power.
UPDATE: Khaddafi may not need to wait until the autumn for cloud cover. I'm forgetting this is a desert:
The sandstorm season in Libya is fast approaching, and with it the prospect of protection from NATO bombing. Under its cover, the colonel could yet send his pickup trucks, disguised with rebel flags, into Benghazi. Diplomats who had earlier said they were coming to stay are making contingency plans to flee within an hour’s notice, waving goodbye to free Libya.
If Khaddafi's forces make it through Ajdabiya and into Benghazi under cover of either clouds or sand storms, this rebellion could be history.
