Egypt today said it looks to open a "new page" with Iran in comments that indicate a major policy shift 30 years after the two nations severed ties over the status of Israel.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Elaraby said the two countries "deserve to have mutual relations reflecting their history and civilization."
Some will panic and worry that an Iran-Egypt axis will form with Israel trapped in the middle. That's way too bad to worry about, now.
Egypt and Iran have long been rivals as potential leaders of the Moslem Middle East. Egypt is a large, largely Sunni Arab state that has worked hard to overcome the legacy of a peace deal with Israel to lead the Arab world. Saddam's Iraq attempted to seize that mantle, but war with Iran did not cement that goal. Instead, Iraq's need for Egypt's help in the Iran-Iraq War gave Egypt an opening to re-enter the mainstream Arab world. The new, democratic, Shia-dominated Iraq has a long way to go before it could aspire to that role (overcoming Sunni Arab suspicions is just one problem). Iran has tried to ride anti-Israel policies (to include Israel's destruction) to leadership of the Sunni Arab Moslem world despite Iran's Shia status.
So I really doubt that Egypt will move toward alliance and friendship with Iran. I strongly suspect that Egypt's move is tactical. Building a new Iraq has opened the possibility that Islamists could exploit the situation to gain power. And the Islamists in Egypt could be seen by Iran as a wedge to drive Egypt to Islamism in internal and foreign policy (kicking out American and returning to hostility toward Israel). Egypt has an interest in warming relations with Iran enough to convince Iran to refrain from mucking about in Egypt.
Can that work if Egypt is thinking tactically here? Probably not. Actors within Iran will help the Moslem Brotherhood whether or not the Iranian government officially cuts a deal with Egypt. The question then becomes how much damage can Iran do before Egypt realizes that they achieved nothing with their extended open hand in this new (and Egyptian) Cairo outreach.
