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Saturday, April 09, 2011

On to Ajdabiya

Libyan loyalists appear to be making a move on Ajdabiya:

Gaddafi's forces shelled the western outskirts of Ajdabiyah, launch point for rebel attacks toward the Mediterranean oil port of Brega.

A Reuters correspondent heard artillery impacts and machinegun fire for around 30 minutes, coming from the western boundary of the town, the gateway to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi 150 km (90 miles) to the northeast.

Al Jazeera television said Gaddafi forces had entered Ajdabiyah.

It is possible that the presence of NATO air power has slowed down the rate at which the loyalists could accumulate enough firepower and supplies to take a shot at Ajdabiya (and why the fight for Burayqah/Brega took so long). It isn't really a stalemate. It is only taking the loyalists longer to make their ground superiority felt at the front.

Once more, I'll say that the rebels need to dig in and hold Ajdabiya. It is the key to a defensible enclave. When a ceasefire comes, the rebels must have Ajdabiya. Misrata would be nice, but not key. For the loyalists, it is the reverse. It would be nice to have Ajdabiya but they must have Misrata.