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Thursday, March 31, 2011

Still Not Providing Air Support

News that we have CIA operatives on the ground in Libya trying to work with the rebels does not change the fact that we are not providing ground support to the rebels. We are running a parallel air campaign that we hope the rebels can exploit with their armed mobs:

The United States and Britain have inserted covert intelligence agents into Libya to make contact with rebels and to gather data to guide coalition air strikes, a report said.

Given how the fighting has gone, I'd say that these agents on the ground are identifying targets for planned air and missile strikes, but they are not painting loyalist targets for hitting loyalist units that are in contact with rebels. Further, given our lack of knowledge on the ground, I'd bet that most of the efforts of the agents is getting intel on the rebels and trying to talk to them, rather than identifying targets. For our planned strikes, we have planes and electronics and satellites to find targets.

The British may be doing more of the targeting for their effort around Misrata (it seems like the British have the job of working that area) since the story says the British have agents and special forces on the ground. So maybe the British are trying to provide actual ground support to rebels in Misrata. This makes sense because while we think we can get away with not doing that and still nail loyalists on the open road between Ajdabiya and Sirte, with loyalists and rebels inside Misrata, greater precision is needed in targeting to avoid civilian casualties.

Unless NATO wants to give up and let Khaddafi survive (press reports of phantom casualties are already in the Arab press and it won't take many accidents to develop a narrative of suffering Libyans under our guns to migrate to the Western press, which will then validate Arabic language press), inevitably we'll need to put special forces on the ground with rebel units to call in air strikes.

The rebels need an army. Either we prepare for a long war by sending in French anti-tank missiles, old Egyptian tanks, a military contractor company to train and organize the rebel mob into a passable army (and draw up a plan to use their forces to win the civil war), and put in special forces to use our air power to support the rebels in combat; or the Europeans send in three good combat brigades reinforced with other supporting units to form a reinforced division and capture Tripoli (or a couple Egyptian divisions could make the long drive to Tripoli).

Otherwise, we're relying on good luck to win. But who knows, maybe Khaddafi will slip and fall getting out of his bath tub. It happens to people all the time. Why not him? Maybe Tom Friedman could get a little more specific in his prayers for luck.

We're flying over Libya on a coalition wing and Tom's prayer. I want to win this war. I'm praying, too, Tom. And members of Congress should remember that our military is at war over Libya even if they have questions about how the administration is waging the war. Win the war, first. Focus on how to do that. After? Go after the president all you like.