Right now we are orchestrating the air campaign, but when we hand off to someone else when our primary mission of suppressing enemy air defenses and air fields (which we struck with B-2 bombers dropping 40 bombs) is over, can anyone else integrate multiple nations in an air campaign? Perhaps the Western powers are deconflicting by geography instead, and Benghazi is where the French will fight. That has had results already:
French warplanes were in the skies above Libya again on Sunday, an armed forces source said. Britain said its planes had targeted Libya's air defenses mainly around the capital Tripoli.
The burned and shattered remains of government military vehicles littered the main road into Benghazi on Sunday as the rebels advanced back toward the strategic town of Ajdabiyah they lost last week.
Some 14 tanks, 20 troop carriers, two trucks with multiple rocket launchers and dozens of pick-ups were all destroyed. Some still smouldered. Fourteen bodies lay in the desert next to the vehicles, though the scale of the bombardment made identifying bodies difficult as munitions exploded in the flames.
One, does the evidence of smashed civilian vehicles indicate French special forces on the ground to target pick-up trucks filled with armed men? Or are the French trusting identification from the air to do this? I'd think fear of inflicting civilian casualties would mean the former, but I don't know. But that chassis count indicates the loss of a battalion of infantry and a company of tanks, which is probably a good percentage of the attacking force that was trying to take Benghazi. Nice work for the first day.
Second, the loyalists apparently are retreating from their positions around Benghazi. Or, the situation is so fluid that rebels are advancing south to Ajdabiya while loyalists still try to take Benghazi. Hard to say now. If I was planning the rebel campaign, I'd hold in Benghazi to suck the loyalists in while I attacked vigorously at Ajdabiya to cut off the loyalists from supplies and a way to retreat. Depending on how many mercenaries are in the loyalist assault forces, the surrender of the Benghazi attack force might be pretty easy to arrange if isolation and defeat looms for the loyalist forces.
Still, unless a cruise missile plugs Khaddafi and his sons (and nobody equally determined and/or nuts takes control to continue the war for the loyalists), the loyalists could retreat west to strongholds around Sirte and hold the line there with coalition air power constrained by human shields drawn from loyal populations. As Admiral Mullen said:
Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs, says the goals of the military campaign in the North African nation "are limited and it isn't about seeing him go."
Mullen does say he thinks Gadhafi is more isolated ever as a result of the no-fly zone and an arms embargo. Mullen says the Libyan leader is "going to have to make some choices about his own future" at some point.
The problem lies between President Obama's (and others) insistence that Khaddafi must go and the stated goal of the intervention to save Libyan lives. In the aftermath of UN-blessed wars in Korea and Iraq, saving the Koreans and Iraqis stopped at the ceasefire lines and whoever was unfortunate enough to be on the wrong side when the coalition decided they'd done enough was out of luck. We have North Korea today and had non-Kurdish Iraq for over a decade to show what suffering can result where our troops don't stand at the end of the day. At some point, after the rebel strongholds are secured, we'll have to address the disconnect between the desire to overthrow the Khaddafi regime and the willingness of the coalition to do the job.
If we have stepped into the background as we intend, who does the job? I've written that a reinforced division of European troops (with an American Marine Expeditionary Unit in support) could take Tripoli. And I think two Egyptian mechanized divisions could do the job, too. Stratfor mentions both in their quick analysis.
Mullen also over-states the isolation when you consider that the African Union has called for a halt to the fighting and that Khaddafi's South American allies want the war to end. And you'll see the usual suspect in the West out on the streets before too long. I think Mullen has forgotten how Iran gets by and how Saddam got by despite his "isolation."
Khaddafi could survive this air campaign. Although to this day I remain astounded that we got lucky enough in the 1999 Kosovo War that the Serbs capitulated under aerial bombardment in support of insurgents (although we did have a credible ground threat gathering). But if we don't get that lucky, a lot of Libyans we were authorized to protect will be on the wrong side of the ceasefire line.
What do we do then?
