Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's forces pushed into the rebel-held city of Benghazi on Saturday, defying world demands for an immediate ceasefire and forcing rebels to retreat.
This was at least a tactical mistake by Khaddafi. Since the West would have a delay in launching strikes, the Libyan loyalists should have done what they are doing to lock down as much territory as they can, and only later today or tomorrow declared a ceasefire after burrowing into Benghazi.
And I doubt if the loyalists can make a lot of lasting inroads into Benghazi because the rebels will have their morale raised to resist, believing it is just a matter of time before warplanes start striking the loyalists. Although they may need to see Western jets in action before that really sinks in, since after being alone this last month, they seem to be a tad doubtful that the cavalry really has arrived. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I assume more Western and Arab special forces are being moved in to call in the fire on behalf of the rebels. That alone would account for the delay in shooting.
The rebels also shot down a loyalist jet, which demonstrates the importance of having at least our special forces on the ground to let rebels know when not to shoot at a plane overhead.
Given that President Obama made the withdrawal from several cities, among other things, an ultimatum to Khaddafi, how will our president react to further attacks? It certainly gives the West more time than we might have had otherwise to work over the loyalist heavy weapons to prevent them from resuming their attacks if we stop them. We should take that opportunity.
When the attacks begin, we'll need special forces on the ground in Misrata to help that city hold; in Benghazi to help that city hold; and in Ajdabiya to help rebels counter-attack and fully take the city and road net around the city to completely cut off the loyalist units attacking Benghazi. The road from Ajdabiya to Benghazi can be turned into a highway of death by attacking any military vehicle moving in either direction. We can't risk too many civilian casualties by attacking anything that moves, so civilian vehicles carrying loyalist fighters would escape air attack. But by destroying tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, we'd target the loyalist advantage in firepower that has hammered the rebels the last couple weeks.
If we do this right, we will really make Khaddafi pay for his deception of agreeing to the ceasefire yet accelerating his attacks. The most important elements are to hold Benghazi and organize a rebel attack on Ajdabiya to cut off the loyalist units attacking Benghazi.
Can we do these things? If we can, Khaddafi's decision to attack will be a strategic mistake that could weaken his ability to hold in the west if there are future revolts inspired by the reversal of fortune in the east and the intervention of foreign air power against Khaddafi.
UPDATE: A quick afterthought is that with the loyalists violating the ceasefire and our president already stretching the UNSC resolution to demand retreats by Khaddafi from what his forces have taken from the rebels, could we stretch the no-ground forces provision of the resolution? The resolution does authorize "all necessary measures" (I'm not sure how the part just after that section which references paragraph 9 in an earlier resolution allowing states to block arms shipments and mercenaries going to Libya affects this) to protect the Libyan people. That would normally mean troops, too, but for the provision that does not authorize the occupation of Libya ("excluding a foreign occupation force of any form ").
But is a ground force rescue mission to protect civilians a necessary measure or an occupation? Could the Egyptians intervene along the lines I suggested here? With air support, we can reduce the numbers I suggested. I think a non-Western force would get more acceptance to test the boundaries of competing passages. Send even a single mechanized brigade along the coastal road to Benghazi (inspiring rebels who would see the passage, as a bonus) would be enough to stiffen the defenders, assuming the rebels can hold until they arrive. Send a tank brigade and mechanized brigade straight to Ajdabiya across the desert highway and it could secure the entire Ajdabiya region, cutting off the loyalist spearheads at Benghazi. This would turn the area between the cities into a kill sack that Western planes could exploit.
We can exploit this. Benghazi could yet prove to be a city too far for the loyalists. The rebels with foreign special forces might be able to carry out this plan on their own, but three Egyptian brigades would make the world of difference and really cripple the loyalist forces.
UPDATE: Stratfor looks at the potential for air intervention and reinforces what I note about the Ajdabiya-to-Benghazi road and the difficulty of targeting anything other than tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces (in this case truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers)
