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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Watch This

What is Iran up to? This is a big effing deal, I think:

Two Iranian warships planned to sail through the Suez canal en route to Syria on Wednesday, Israel's foreign minister said, calling the move the latest "provocation" by Tehran and hinting at an Israeli response.

They could be carrying a cargo of weapons if Iran thinks it is a priority to get them to Hezbollah soon through Syria. Although I can't imagine what they could carry that aircraft couldn't get to Syria faster.

A more plausible explanation is that Iran could use the warships to escort a pretend humanitarian flotilla to Gaza.

UPDATE: Egypt denies the Israeli claim. Our Pentagon won't comment. Does it come down to a definition of a warship? Egypt says that they've received no 48-hour notice from Iran for a warship entry. It doesn't mean Iranian warships aren't approaching, since even true warships could wait the 48 hours after giving notice. But it isn't as clear as it first seemed.

Iran surely has every right to sail their warships wherever they want. But we have every right to worry about what Iran might do with them. Obviously, they'd live a short but exciting life if it comes to shooting, so that isn't what they are for. But they are a danger.

UPDATE: A frigate and supply ship were indeed heading for the canal:

Two Iranian naval vessels withdrew a request Thursday to transit the Suez Canal after Israel expressed concerns over the plans, a senior canal official said. ...

The Suez Canal official identified the two vessels as the Alvand, a frigate, and the Kharq, a supply ship, and said they were en route to Syria. He said they were now in an area near Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Jiddah.

They remain in the Red Sea. Strategypage says this is part of a mullah fantasy that Iran can support a pro-Iran wave of Islamist revolutions in the Arab world. Silly me, I thought they were thinking tactically when they were thinking bizarrely.

We'll see if the ships return to Iran or simply wait to make a passage request.