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Monday, February 21, 2011

Stretching the Security Forces

Libyan authorities have been willing to kill, but protesters have apparently taken over Benghazi with the support of defecting troops. And clashes have spread to Tripoli:

Libyan protesters celebrated in the streets of Benghazi on Monday, claiming control of the country's second largest city after bloody fighting, and anti-government unrest spread to the capital with clashes in Tripoli's main square for the first time. Moammar Gadhafi's son vowed that his father and security forces would fight "until the last bullet."

Libya will have to rely on their own resources to put down this revolt. And while it would be difficult for protesters to hold in the face of a serious counter-attack by loyal security forces, how many are there? And if the current level of killing has shaken the army to the point where some have defected, can the army hold together if ordered to--or even just watch other security forces--kill even more protesters?

And can Libyan authorities afford to send them to Benghazi when the flames of revolt are closer to home? Send enough east to secure that area and maybe there are too few to hold the west; fail to send forces east and maybe the region declares independence or rallies other troops for a more general revolt against the government.

It is at least a bit comforting that at least some unrest isn't in a country that we consider an ally.

UPDATE: Instapundit notes a rumor that Khaddafi fled to Venezuela:

Colonel Gaddafi may be on his way to the Venezuela tonight, according to Foreign Secretary William Hague. He said he had seen 'some information' that suggests he is on his way to the South American country.

The Libyan justice minister has now resigned in protest at the 'excessive use of violence' against the protesters, according to the Quryna newspaper, while the Maltese Foreign Ministry said it is trying to establish why two Libyan fighter jets landed on the island today.

A coalition of Libyan Islamic leaders has issued a fatwa telling all Muslims it is their duty to rebel against the Libyan leadership and demanding the release of all jailed protesters.

The aircraft thing is harder to consider speculation or rumor. And a fatwah gives cover for more military personnel to revolt.