Militiamen loyal to Moammar Gadhafi clamped down in Tripoli, but cracks in his regime spread elsewhere across the nation, as the protest-fueled rebellion controlling much of eastern Libya claimed new gains closer to the capital. Two pilots let their warplane crash in the desert, parachuting to safety, rather than bomb an opposition-held city.
The opposition said it had taken over Misrata, which would be the largest city in the western half in the country to fall into its hands. Clashes broke out over the past two days in the town of Sabratha, west of the capital, where the army and militiamen were trying to put down protesters who overwhelmed security headquarters and government buildings, a news website close to the government reported.
The government may have secured its base of the capital, but protesters may regroup and return to the streets--perhaps armed this time if arms depots in the capital region aren't secured by the government.
And rebels moved the "front" closer to Tripoli. But these revolts are likely just spots on a map, with rebels in static positions that they can defend, but incapable of supporting other rebel spots on the map. If the Libyan government can scrape up mobile forces from their (pre-crisis) 50,000-man army (half conscripts), foreign mercenaries, and any ad hoc forces organized from loyal navy and air force elements, they could pick off these static rebel bastions one by one.
At some point, the rebels need organized army units to form a core of mobile forces to defend gains and attack west to expand rebel areas without counting on local rebellions to expand the ground held. Misrata is pretty far west and could be out on a limb if the rebellions slow down before driving Khaddafi from power.
At the very least, the eastern rebels need mobile forces to hold the "waist" of Libya at Marsah al Burayqah to block the main east-west road into eastern Libya. They'd also need to push forces south to Tazirbu and Al Jawf to protect the oil resources down there that could sustain them if it comes to a drawn out civil war.
So far, I don't pay much attention to casualty figures since they could be grossly exaggerated. Whether it is in the low hundreds or over a thousand, however, it is clear the Khaddafi is willing to kill at the higher edge or more to retain power. That's my main take on the casualty guesses.
UPDATE: Another report on the sorting. Rebels seem to hold eastern Libya, at least along the road from Egypt to Aldabiya (Ajdabiya on my map, I think), to the east of Masah al Burayqah. And Khaddafi appears to only partly control the capital. Mobile army forces are being used west of Tripoli to retake Sabratah (not on my maps) 80 kilometers from the capital.
The rebels in the east have some breathing space as long as Khaddafi has to use his loyal mobile forces to clamp down his home base. They'd best use the time wisely.
UPDATE: Khaddafi doesn't seem to be consolidating his own region. One (former) Libyan air force pilot says he say up to 4,000 foreign mercenaries flown into Tripoli; and only 150 pro-Khaddafi loyalists responded to a call to rally in the capital's Green Square. It doesn't look like a government counter-attack to the east could take place anytime soon, that's for sure.
UPDATE: More indications that Khaddafi is having trouble just holding the west outside of the capital. Also, in the east, rebels are vowing to advance on Tripoli. Bravado, to be sure, but right now it is more likely that battles between east and west will be fought in the west rather than in the east.
