He could be right. Syria is different:
"Syria is a different country than Egypt," Gerges says. "First of all, it's a much smaller society than Egypt. The level of poverty is on a lesser scale. It's fragmented along sectarian lines as opposed to social and ideological lines. And it is a very repressive society, so in this particular sense, even though anything is possible these days, I don't expect Syria to experience a similar process of social upheaval to that of Tunisia and Egypt." ...
Yet, Gerges says, the Syrian president may have been hinting -- with good reason -- more at the greater brutality and control of his security forces, which may be relied upon to ruthlessly suppress any challenge to the ruling Ba'ath Party and keep a lid on Syria's simmering domestic tensions.
Remember, the majority of Syria is composed of Sunni Arabs while the ruling elites are Alawites--a sect of Shia Islam that a lot of Moslems don't even consider real Islam at all.
The regime has all the incentive to brutally put down any uprising if necessary and the security apparatus knows that losing control could result in a sectarian bloodbath if the majority overwhelms the armed and organized minority that rules them.
So if there is unrest, the government's forces will do what it takes to put it down, and will probably win. But if the regime loses, it will lose big and the casualties could make Iraq's bloodshed the last 8 years look like a walk in the park.
UPDATE: A big fizzle on protests. Nobody showed up. Either Syrians are happy with Assad or they fear his security forces too much to risk stepping out from their keyboards (and I say that not to mock) to protest in person.
