The army supports Mubarak's decision to technically stay in power while turning over formal power to the vice president:
Egypt's powerful military tried to defuse outrage over President Hosni Mubarak's refusal to step down, assuring it would guarantee promised reforms. But hundreds of thousands only grew angrier, deluging squares in at least three major cities Friday and marching on presidential palaces and the state TV building, key symbols of the authoritarian regime.
Yet the army isn't acting against the protesters:
The palace was protected by four tanks and rolls of barbed wire, but soldiers did nothing to stop more people from joining the rally. In fact, they threw biscuits and cookies through the palace gates to protesters, who laughed and joked with them.So the army continues to play the middle in appearance, although it clearly defends the government--as long as it changes in the months to come, including the end of the Mubaraks in government.
The march on the palace were the first by protesters who for nearly three weeks have centered their mass demonstrations in Cairo's downtown Tahrir Square.
More than 10,000 tore apart military barricades in front of the towering State Television and Radio building, a pro-Mubarak bastion that has aired constant commentary supporting him and dismissing the protests. They swarmed on the Nile River corniche at the foot of the building, beating drums and chanting, "Leave! Leave! Leave!" They blocked employees from entering, vowing to silence the broadcast.
Soldiers in tanks in front of the building did nothing to stop them, though state TV continued to air.
We risk looking like idiots for welcoming Mubarak's decision to leave before he announced he would not.
Still, our announcement of aid for rule of law issues prior to elections may appeal to protesters but it also effectively supports the army-supported decision:
In a statement from the White House, Obama called on Egypt's leaders to make it 'clear that this transition is immediate, meaningful [and] sufficient.'
The second challenge is harder. Washington has publicly called for a transition to democracy, which Egypt has never known. To avoid a continuation of dictatorial rule under a new strong man or a dangerous power vacuum as weaker players try to seize control, Egypt will need to see the lightning-fast development of long-suppressed political parties. So the US is preparing a new package of assistance to Egyptian opposition groups designed to help with constitutional reform, democratic development and election organizing,
We also hope Mubarak's decision will be enough to defuse the pressure on the streets, as long as more steps are taken to make it clear Mubarak is practically out now and will eventually be out period. Perhaps Mubarak's helicoptering out to the Sinai where he is farther from Cairo and closer to exile in Saudi Arabia will create an "out of sight, out of mind" environment:
A local government official says President Hosni Mubarak is in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, 250 miles from the capital Cairo, where protesters are deluging squares and marching on presidential palaces and the State TV building.
The unstable stalemate continues with nobody (including our government) trying to go over the top to break the war of attrition logic, and hoping the other side breaks first from their own fissures and weaknesses.
UPDATE: Rumor a little after 11:00 am that Mubarak has really resigned. Well, it is a short ride to Saudi Arabia from where he is.
UPDATE: There he goes:
A massive crowd in Cairo's central Tahrir Square exploded into joy, waving Egyptian flags, and car horns and celebratory shots in the air were heard around the city of 18 million in joy after Vice President Omar Suleiman made the announcement on national TV just after nightfall.
I expect a huge chunk of people on the streets and many more watching from their homes will be satisfied with this visible sign of Mubarak's retreat.
The military is in charge for now. Let's get that rule-of-law package fleshed out and on the streets of Egypt.
