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Sunday, February 13, 2011

Freedom or Islamism?

There are hints of unrest in Bahrain:

Bahrain's security forces set up checkpoints and clashed with marchers in at least one village Sunday as opposition groups blanketed social media sites with calls to stage the first major anti-government protests in the Gulf since the uprising in Egypt.

The wide-ranging clampdown appeared directed toward Bahrain's Shiite majority — which had led the drive for Monday's rallies — and reflected the increasing worries of the Sunni rulers who have already doled out cash and promised greater media reforms in an effort to quell the protest fervor.

Given the likelihood that Iran would be heavily invested in a Shia revolt, this is one place I'd go all in to support Bahrain's government rather than pretend that a pro-Iran revolt is a pro-democracy revolt--while insisting that after the crackdown that further reforms follow to keep the Shia majority content.

UPDATE: The government's forces are confronting the protesters:

Bahrain's security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets Monday at thousands of anti-government protesters heeding calls to unite in a major rally and bring the Arab reform wave to the Gulf for the first time.

The protesters certainly have grievances, but it is also true that Iran would exploit the grievances of the majority Shia to turn Bahrain into a colony of their own.

After a short period of time during which I wondered if Iran was involved in the Egypt uprising, I didn't worry that Islamists could take over Egypt if Mubarak went. The Moslem Brotherhood is weak right now (although that doesn't speak to their strength in a couple decades if they get a foothold in the government--ask the Lebanese how Hezbollah is working out). But in Bahrain, I worry that pro-Iran elements working for Tehran could quickly hijack a revolt based on Shia grievances, no matter how sincere the Shias are in wanting democracy.

Once again, our life would be easier if we didn't have to worry about Iran under the mullahs exploiting a situation to their benefit and our harm (not to mention the harm to the people who would be stuck under a jihadi-friendly regime).