I read initial commentary that from the photos (obviously released by the Chinese military on purpose) it looked like the seams on the J-20 weren't up to standards for a true stealth aircraft. The assumption has been that since the J-20 looks like an F-22, it must be in the same category as an F-22. But if the Chinese are current on their Sun Tsu, could this be a case of trying to appear stealthy when you give off a radar signature of the Good Year Blimp?
Maybe this project has been an epic fail in reverse engineering and the Chinese decided they might as well get propaganda use now if this project is a dead end. Mind you, China is making progress in technology and one day may match us in technology. They'll get stealth. But the J-20 isn't the sign that we've reached that day this year, in my opinion.
We're still technically in the Year of the Tiger. But I suspect this is actually the Year of the Dog and Pony Show.
I eagerly await some sober analysis of the J-20 pictures. To be fair, it may be out there, but I'm just not as plugged into aviation issue sources as I am for land and naval issues. I should look around.
Still, if China wants to pretend they have a stealth fighter in the wings, Taiwan should go along in order to bolster their justification for F-16s and other advanced weapons as needed for Taiwan's defense.
UPDATE: Let me correct something. I wrote that the Chinese may have reverse engineered the F-22, but since the Chinese don't have an F-22 to examine and reverse engineer, I should have just said the Chinese failed to copy the F-22. I had in mind memories of stories about how the Chinese reverse engineered a 737 (I think) but it could not fly because they missed the center of gravity.
UPDATE: Ah, we will upgrade 2 wings of existing Taiwanese F-16s and are still considering the sale of new F-16s to Taiwan:
[The] arms package has been approved by all U.S. agencies except the State Department. Once it is fully approved, Taiwan will decide what to buy for retrofitting the F-16s. A final notice to Congress is not expected until later this year, he said.
Defense sources said Taiwan's request to buy more modern F-16s is still being considered, but the upgrade package is assured.
Even aside from the capabilities that these deals will provide, just having the tangible sign of American support will bolster Taiwanese military and public morale, making it more likely that Taiwan can deter an invasion and not have to stop an invasion.
But we're putting on a show of cooperation until the Chinese complete their visit here following the Gates visit to China, to avoid spoiling the pageantry.
