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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Military First? First for What?

Strategypage writes that North Korea is cracking down on signs of dissent and pushing more of their limited resources to the military. Not that it seems that will do much good:

Aid from China only amounts to about $300 million a year. That's still coming in, but not the larger amount of goods bought from China (including a lot of food and fuel, but mostly industrial goods for the arms industries and the military.) The shortages have fallen largely on industry (lots more dark and empty factories) and the military (lots of army bases with less, or no, heat this time of year, and lower quality food as well.) There's less food and fuel for everyone, and for most of the country, there is electricity only a few hours a day, if that.

In response to the growing shortages, North Korea has been spending more on the military. It's is now believed that a third of the North Korea GDP (about $20 billion, compared to $1,000 billion for South Korea) goes to the million man armed forces.

Being first in line for what little there is won't go far, as I wrote in the fall. And I really doubt that the military comes first ahead of the ruling elite who want their luxury goods before troops get a third meal or heat.

It is increasingly looking like President Obama will get lucky and see North Korea collapse before it gets usable nuclear weapons.

Oh, and the Strategypage post, further down, has this interesting nugget:

China is demanding the right to station troops in the northwestern North Korean port of Rason. This would protect a Chinese owned port facility, and make is easier for China to quickly ship in more troops if the situation deteriorated in North Korea.

They mean northeast North Korea, apparently, if I located the right port. It is interesting because having troops there seems far more important to keeping Russia from carving out some territory from the carcass of North Korea than intervening in North Korea. Chinese forces can cross the border overland. Or cross the Yellow Sea to west coast North Korean ports.