Given their geographic position and defense needs, it always seemed to me that Russia needed ballistic missile submarines operating in sea bastions in the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, with nuclear attack subs to protect them. Add in lighter surface vessels and diesel-electric subs for work in those bastions as well as the Baltic and Black Seas. For prestige, a small number of long-range cruisers and a couple helicopter carriers to show the flag and participate in humanitarian relief operations could be thrown in. But carriers? Good Lord, why would Russia need those?
Well, if reality hasn't exactly struck, it has put off the day when the Russians truly have to decide whether they want to spend the money on carriers:
A top Russian commander conceded Friday that Moscow lacked the funds to deploy a powerful new armada of aircraft carriers as promised by the Kremlin.
“The state armaments programme for 2011-2020 does not envision the construction of aircraft carriers,” an unnamed senior official in Russia's Defence Ministry told the Interfax news agency.
Given Russia's more desperate needs to maintain a submarine-based nuclear deterrent, modernize and professionalize their army, and upgrade their air force, a blue water navy is a luxury Moscow can't afford. I don't see that changing in the post-2020 time period.
