Secret American intelligence assessments have concluded that Iran has obtained a cache of advanced missiles, based on a Russian design, that are much more powerful than anything Washington has publicly conceded that Tehran has in its arsenal, diplomatic cables show.
Iran obtained 19 of the missiles from North Korea, according to a cable dated Feb. 24 of this year. The cable is a detailed, highly classified account of a meeting between top Russian officials and an American delegation led by Vann H. Van Diepen, an official with the State Department’s nonproliferation division who, as a national intelligence officer several years ago, played a crucial role in the 2007 assessment of Iran’s nuclear capacity.
The missiles could for the first time give Iran the capacity to strike at capitals in Western Europe or easily reach Moscow, and American officials warned that their advanced propulsion could speed Iran’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The information supports the decision because Iran's missiles capable of reaching eastern Europe would probably be in place well before we could put the Bush plan missiles into place, if my memory serves me well.
On the other hand, Iran's technology gains will, in time, allow Iran to go over the Obama missile defenses and strike western Europe targets unless the shorter-range missiles have their deployment expanded greatly.
Further, if this accelerated progress leads Iran to get missiles capable of reaching America, the lack of the Bush plan missile defenses means nothing that Obama plans to put in Europe can intercept missiles launched from Iran and flying over Europe on the way to targets here.
Overall, I'm not impressed with our administration's choice. Unless the plan is that we only need to worry about the short run because in the long run we will destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure before it can be a threat to North America or overthrow the mullah regime before then. Either of the latter would impress me.
UPDATE: This article notes the time frames of making the rival plans operational:
James N. Miller, principal deputy under secretary of defense for policy, spoke to the House Armed Services Committee’s strategic forces subcommittee today on progress of the phased, adaptive approach to European ballistic missile defense. ...
President Barack Obama approved the approach in 2009, and allies endorsed the concept at the recent NATO summit in Lisbon, Portugal. ...
The phased, adaptive approach offers several advantages over previous ballistic missile defense strategies, Miller said. The plan, he said, allows the United States to defend its troops and allies in Europe much sooner against the threat posed by short- and medium-range missiles starting in 2011, rather than in 2016 or 2018 under previous plans.
The approach will cope with dozens or scores of ballistic missile attacks, versus only five for the previous architecture, Miller said, and it will adapt more rapidly to changes in the threat through the ability to deploy additional interceptors as needed to land-based sites and on ships.
So the Obama plan is faster getting into service. But as I'll note again, the Obama plan may be able to handle scores of missiles fired at European targets, but will be able to handle zero Iranian missiles that can reach America--when Iran finally gets them.
So always remember as the issue is discussed, we are not building an American missile defense system to protect North America and Europe from Iran--we are building a system to protect Europe only.
