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Sunday, December 19, 2010

Drawing a Northern Limit Line in the Sea

South Korea will carry out live-fire exercises off their western coast when the weather clears, despite North Korean threats of further violence:

"The live-fire drill off Yeonpyeong Island will take place on Dec. 20 or 21, as previously announced, depending on weather conditions," an unnamed official told Seoul's Yonhap News Service.

A Joint Chiefs of Staff official, who also did not give his name, told the news service that South Korea was not in any way considering the north's objections in making its decision to carry out the drills.

"The planned firing drill is part of the usual exercises conducted by our troops based on Yeonpyeong Island. The drill will occur within our territorial waters," the official said. "We won't take into consideration North Korean threats and diplomatic situations before holding the live-fire drill."

The South Koreans really do seem like they've reached the limit of what they will just sit and take from North Korea. We'll find out if the North Koreans appreciate this apparent change.

UPDATE: South Korea carried out their drill in the same location, firing in the same direction that North Korea said provoked their last attack. But this time the North Koreans did not open fire:

North Korea called Monday's drills a "reckless military provocation" but said after they ended that it was holding its fire because Seoul had changed its firing zones. ...

The North on Monday, however, kept its rhetoric heated, saying it will use its powerful military to blow up South Korean and U.S. bases.

Perhaps the South Koreans did fire to targets further south to give the North a face-saving excuse; but if that is what happened, it is a weak excuse and both sides know it.

Apparently, the North Koreans do indeed understand that they are weaker than South Korea, and don't believe Seoul's determination is fragile.
On the other hand, North Korea may just plan to strike again in another place at another time in a different way when South Korea's guard is down and anger has cooled in South Korea.

Of course, having succeeded in facing off against the nutballs up north, South Korea may be far more ready to immediately strike back hard if attacked. When the Cheonan was sunk, South Korea did nothing. When their island was shelled, South Korea replied with their own artillery fire but that was deemed insufficient. Will South Korea use their air force the next time?