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Monday, November 15, 2010

Let the Science Guide Us!

I do hope our scientists aren't actually stupid enough to make predictions about future events based on current trends:

The world will run out of oil around 100 years before replacement energy sources are available if oil use and development of new fuels continue at the current pace, a US study warns.

What rubbish. In what world would factors remain static if oil started getting more scarce? Of course, I'm sure the scientists perfectly understand the weakness of making a claim about static trends running out to the year 2140. Which makes using their study to make that claim all the more shameful. This statement is absolutely true:

You tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it’s even worth thinking about. Our models just carry the present into the future. They’re bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives a moment’s thought knows it.

They have "science," to be sure, telling us we'll run out of oil long before we have a replacement source of energy. But the counter-argument has the advantage of history, which I believe demonstrates that we've never run out of any resource before a replacement was found.