Wishful Thinking

The Georgians are annoying us and poking at Russia. Do the Georgians really believe this is a wise policy?

The hard and even brutal lesson that Georgia needs to learn is this: NATO’s European members will not accept a rash and headstrong Georgia into the alliance. Ever.

Georgia’s worst enemy could scarcely have harmed the country more.

Seriously. Georgia won't get into NATO as long as they dream of reclaiming the land they lost in August 2008. Georgia's best hope is to arm up to resist the Russians, abandon hopes of reconquering Abkhazia and South Ossetia (while never giving up legal claim), and develop their own economy and society so that the people in their lost provinces live to regret wanting salvation by the Russians.

We won't go to war over Abhkazia and South Ossetia. NATO certainly won't. Georgia needs to accept this reality, or Russia will take the opportunity to take Tbilisi.

UPDATE: I generally don't have much use for the Center for American Progress. But while I am generally supportive of selling to Georgia anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, and other weapons more suited to defense (radars, engineering equipment, mines, etc.), I do worry that the Georgians are too eager to reclaim their lost provinces by force. And Russia almost took the opportunity to take Georgia a year ago, according to the article:

The combination of discontent and instability could well spark a second conflict. Indeed, we came very close to just that in the run-up to the first anniversary of the war in August 2009. Details are sketchy, but U.S. officials describe what happened as a near miss that was only prevented by Washington intervening with Moscow at the highest levels of the government.

Kudos to the Obama administration for stopping a war. Note that I support the general idea of getting Georgia to give up practical efforts to reclaim their territory and focus on their own prosperity (advice I also urge the Palestinians to adopt, for that matter), I don't think it will lead to regaining Abkhazia and South Ossetia. I suspect that if Georgia successfully develops, and their lost provinces wallow in the stink of Russian colonial control, nobody in Georgia will want those provinces back.