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Monday, October 18, 2010

Preparing to Assess the Surge

We are close to deciding whether the 2010 surge of forces into Afghanistan justifies committing troops to the fight after the theoretical July 2011 date to begin (token) withdrawals from the country.

The military says it sees progress:

With a year-end report card coming due, top U.S. military and civilian officials in Afghanistan have begun to assert that they see concrete progress in the war against the Taliban, a sharp departure from earlier assessments that the insurgency had the momentum.

I haven't been pessimistic the last several years despite the conventional wisdom that we are losing. I think our military was officially pessimistic to avoid the "light at the end of the tunnel" syndrome. Of course, I'm prepared to accept reversals in a war without giving up. Stuff happens in war since the other side is trying to win, too. But public morale perhaps needs the cushion of low expectations while the campaign rages.

We say we are also having an effect on enemy supply lines, something I've eagerly looked for in the war:

The NATO coalition said Monday that Afghan and international forces have choked insurgent supply routes in some parts of Afghanistan, prompting militants to extort money from citizens to keep their operations sufficiently supplied.

"We are seeing instances where insurgents are receiving faulty ammunition and weapons through their supply channels," said German Brigadier Gen. Josef Blotz, a spokesman for the NATO command in Kabul. "We have even seen instances where Taliban spokesmen attempt to blame this phenomenon on the coalition." ...

"One way insurgents are coping with deficiencies is by expanding illicit taxation on Afghans in villages around the country," he said, adding that insurgents were levying illegal taxes on farmers in Kunduz province in the north. "Money extracted from farmers is reportedly being used to fund further insurgent violence."

Of course, we can only beat them so much inside Afghanistan as long as they can run to Pakistan and hide and recover. Still, even though much fighting remains, it is a mistake to believe we are losing.

Decide to win. Make that basic decision in this presidential assessment and we can finish the job.

Decide to lose, and it doesn't matter how well our troops actually fight.