Ties between Russia and Belarus have been in freefall since June following the latest conflict over oil and gas supplies, a product of Moscow's increasing unwillingness to subsidise the Belarusian economy with cheap energy. In return, Minsk has refused to recognise the independence of the Georgian separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, aired anti-Russian interviews with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and has threatened to withdraw a lucrative contract for Russia to build a nuclear power station in Belarus[.]
Russia seems mighty annoyed. I've been expecting Russia to engineer something to absorb Belorus. Given the state of Russia's army, which would be strained to carry out a road march across Belorus, something less than an invasion is likely. But what would force Russia's hand to try an invasion? And since Putin wants to restore the Motherland, I'd think that Belorus is the most logical target right now.
We'll see what the volume of noise is from Moscow.
