That leaves another option that we have suggested before, one that would appeal both to Obama’s sensibility and to his political situation: pulling a Nixon. In 1971, Richard Nixon reached out to China while Chinese weapons were being used to kill American soldiers in Vietnam. Roosevelt did the same with the Soviets in 1941. There is a tradition in the United States of a diplomatic stroke with ideological enemies to achieve strategic ends.
Diplomatic strokes appeal to Obama. They also would appeal to his political base, while any agreement with Iran that would contribute to an American withdrawal from Iraq and perhaps from Afghanistan would appeal to the center. The Republicans would be appalled, but Obama can’t win them over anyway so it doesn’t matter. Indeed, he can use their hostility to strengthen his own base.
What the settlement with Iran might look like is murky at best. Whether Iran has any interest in such a settlement is murkier still. But if Obama gets hammered in the midterms, his domestic agenda will be frozen. He doesn’t have the personal strength and credibility to run against Congress for two years and then get re-elected. He retains his power in foreign affairs but he has not gotten traction on a multilateral reconstruction of America’s global popularity. He has two wars ongoing, plus a major challenge from Iran. Attacking Iran from the air might or might not work, and it could weaken him politically. That leaves him with running against Congress or addressing the Middle East with a diplomatic masterstroke.
It is difficult to know the ways of presidents, particularly one who has tried hard to be personally enigmatic. But it is easier to measure the political pressures that are confronting him and shaping his decisions. I wouldn’t be so bold as to predict his actions, but I would argue that he faces some unappetizing choices that he could solve with a very bold move in foreign policy. His options on the domestic side will disappear if the polls are right.
Interesting.
So what diplomatic deal could the president seek?
A grand bargain with Iran over their nukes? If we could have gotten that, I imagine President Obama would have gotten it by now. Iran wants nukes and will do nothing more than pretend they have agreed. And they are possibly too arrogant to even pretend.
Solve the Israel-Palestinian issue? Good luck with that.
A deal that puts the Taliban in a power-sharing deal in Afghanistan? That seems unlikely for the enemy in the "necessary" and "good" "real" war.
Betray Taiwan to China? Since we are selling weapons, that is unlikely.
Normalize relations with Cuba? Who really cares about Cuba any more?
Normalize relations with Burma? Again, who cares?
A deal with Venezuela? What could the deal be? He gets to be a douche bag and we ignore him? Done and done.
The only place he could make a deal with an enemy that would get notice is with North Korea. I don't think the deal would be with North Korea, however. North Korea won't deal over their nukes. But what if we cut a deal with China for the Chinese to invade North Korea to end their nuclear programs in exchange for our approval of the invasion and annexation?
I think it is a bad idea to let China go all the way to the DMZ and would rather partition North Korea with the Chinese (with South Korea getting part and a rump North Korea remaining between the two zones).
I still think that squeezing North Korea will lead to their collapse before they can become a nuclear threat, but a deal with China over North Korea that ends their nuclear status seems to be the only real diplomatic coup--the wisdom of the coup is another question, of course--that could provide the boost to the president if he must flee the domestic field the next two years.
