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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

The Continuation of a Political Crisis By Other Means?

Our military in Iraq is officially worried about the delay in forming an Iraqi government on the issues in their lane:

Iraq's prolonged political crisis has encouraged a spike in violence and pushed frustrated citizens to begin holding back crucial tips on suspected insurgents, the top U.S. commander for Baghdad said Wednesday.

The comments by U.S. Brig. Gen. Rob Baker reflect growing unease that Iraq's nearly seven-month impasse on forming a new government could erode security gains. Baker also told reporters that Iraq risks losing needed foreign investment.

I'll say it again, it is comforting that Iraqi parties are not resorting to guns to solve the impasse. That is truly a healthy sign.

But it is also true that the enemy sees the lack of a government as an opportunity to undermine the legitimacy of the system. How long before that undermining erodes the confidence of the parties in peaceful negotiations? It is already causing people to hedge their bets in cooperating on security issues. That is a bad sign.

We shouldn't try to dictate the form of an agreement, but we should be pushing an agreement that gets a government in place while we are around in strength to reassure the losers that they get another chance in the next election.

If we can't get a government in Iraq, who will we negotiate with over the post-2011 security agreement?