Nothing projects U.S. global air and sea power more vividly than supercarriers. Bristling with fighter jets that can reach deep into even landlocked trouble zones, America's virtually invincible carrier fleet has long enforced its dominance of the high seas.
China may soon put an end to that.
U.S. naval planners are scrambling to deal with what analysts say is a game-changing weapon being developed by China — an unprecedented carrier-killing missile called the Dong Feng 21D that could be launched from land with enough accuracy to penetrate the defenses of even the most advanced moving aircraft carrier at a distance of more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles).
It could be an impressive weapon. But let's not panic over this issue. The DF-21 represents no new type of threat. Approaching land-based air power has long been a threat to carriers. We had this problem in World War II and we had this problem in the Cold War with the Soviet Unioin.
The problem comes with the apparent assumption by many that our carriers are invulnerable. Losing a carrier when you think this is true would be a horrible psychological shock, indeed.
Carriers can, in fact, sink. I deduce that from the fact that they float.
But carriers don't have to be our primary weapon in the face of the DF-21--or any other land-based threat to surface ships.
Adjust our attitudes toward carriers so they are just one weapon among many to be used to win and not a symbol of our power and an objective themselves, adjust our naval tactics and war plans to minimize the exposure of carriers under enemy threat and use other assets until carriers can operate with acceptable risk, and change our naval building priorities so we have many missile-armed ships and subs capable of carrying out offensive missions separate from carrier groups. Do those things and the DF-21 is just a weapon that won't fundamentally change the game--or the outcome.
And we have missiles, too, in the works. China is just guaranteeing that we will strike China's mainland to go after the DF-21s before they can be launched. Now that's a changed game.
Is the DF-21 a game changer? Only if we continue to make the same moves.
UPDATE: Before even discussing whether the DF-21 is or should be a game changer, the Chinese have to get it in the game. And the real game changer could be internal.
