STRATFOR is currently putting the finishing touches on a detailed assessment of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), the al Qaeda-inspired jihadist franchise in that country. As we got deeper into that project, one of the things we noticed was the group’s increasing reliance on criminal activity to fund its operations. In recent months, in addition to kidnappings for ransom and extortion of businessmen — which have been endemic in Iraq for many years — the ISI appears to have become increasingly involved in armed robbery directed against banks, currency exchanges, gold markets and jewelry shops.
This increase in criminal activity highlights how the ISI has fallen on hard times since its heyday in 2006-2007, when it was flush with cash from overseas donors and when its wealth led the apex leadership of al Qaeda in Pakistan to ask its Iraqi franchise for financial assistance.
I thought I'd noticed reports of crimes that seemed to look an awful lot like fund-raising because of the high body counts involved. Why would simple criminals want to bring down a heavy response by doing that? No, it sounded like terrorists looking for cash and having a little fun as a happy side effect.
Evolving into a mere criminal gang from terrorist origins is hardly new in the world of terrorism. Which means that al Qaeda really will become mostly a police problem in time.
