Entitlement Overstretch

Back in the late 1980s, there was an idea in vogue that America was undergoing "imperial overstretch" and that, much like the Spanish empire grew too much and broke Spain with the price of defending that empire, American military spending would break American power.

As it turns out, the idea that increasing defense expenditures in defense of our empire would break us as a superpower foundered on two basic problems. One, we have no empire. And two, defense spending as a percent of GDP did not actually climb to power-breaking levels. The trend since World War II was downward despite momentary spikes up.

We do face a problem in maintaining our national economic power. But it isn't defense spending, since we've adopted our own version of the British Ten Year Rule. Instead, it is domestic spending and debt that threaten to break our power:

Haass’ nightmare scenario is that bond market vigilantes will push market interest rates up dramatically, cutting off the recovery and sending the nation even deeper into debt. That in turn would make it tougher for the U.S. to maintain its defense and foreign aid budgets, and to invest in its people and infrastructure. “Rising deficits mean we cannot invest in our future,” says Haass. “And we cannot remain a world leader if we cannot invest.”

Defending an all-powerful federal spending empire that reaches from the Florida Keys to the North Slope of Alaska and across the Pacific to Hawaii is what could break us--not defending ourselves from actual enemies.

The War on Poverty has evolved into the War on Discomfort, and the price for winning that war could be way too high.

I'll not be an absolutist on this and claim we are doomed, since we have a lot going for us separate from our debt situation. And our debt situation has to be seen in comparison to other countries and their problems and advantages.

It could turn out that even if we become absolutely less well off than we would be otherwise in 20 or 30 years, that we will still be well ahead of anyone else who might challenge us. Or, we might wise up in that time or be compelled to by a crisis. Who knows?

While our relative power will be all that matters to future historians who study the inter-state system during that time, actual people who live through the time will have a different perspective. We shall see.