It is folly for American diplomats to--once again--believe we can flip Syria by making concessions to them. Any flipping should be based on the Libya model--come with us if you want to live. I once thought it was possible to flip Syria this way, and hoped we could. But Syria endured the loss of their buddy Saddam by embracing Iran again (as they had during the Iran-Iraq War).
It is folly because the Syrians have thrown in their lot with the Iranians and Assad has come to enjoy the feeling of Ahmadinejad's arm up his nether region to make Syria Iran's docile little puppet:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, vowed increased cooperation during a meeting in Damascus and canceled visa restrictions between the countries.
"We hope that others don't give us lessons about our region and our history," Assad told reporters when asked about Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's comments this week that the U.S. is troubled by Syria's relationship with Iran. "We are the ones who decide how matters will go and we know our interests. We thank them for their advice."
It is almost funny that some think that if we give Syria's regime enough, they'll become decent people:
Assad could be open to a breakthrough with the Americans. He is hoping for help in boosting a weak economy and for American mediation in direct peace talks with Israel — a recognition that he needs U.S. involvement to achieve his top goal of winning the return of the Golan Heights, seized by Israel in the 1967 Mideast War.
The president's outreach efforts to our enemies haven't worked out very well so far. I think it is safe to say that Bashar Assad is immune to the soothing balms of hope and change. The idea that we can help Syria's economy and help get Golan back and then get Syria to abandon Iran and stop their support for terrorism is completely backwards. Let Syria flip first, and then we'll discuss appropriate rewards. Anything else is just playing Charlie Brown to Assad's Lucy.
UPDATE: Michael Totten explains the proper order of events for flipping Syria.
